On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the declaration of Moldova’s Independence, IPN News Agency decided to depict the portrait of the current Republic of Moldova. For the purpose, it provoked a number of people, including state officials, politicians, businessmen, civil rights activists and persons without posts and titles, but who have what to say. The generic picture is called “Thoughts about and for Moldova”.
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Director of the Demographic Research Center Olga Gagauz: “We will experience a situation when we will have to close some of the universities because the number of students will be much lower.”
Migration reached considerable proportions in the Republic of Moldova. The country lost an enormous demographic potential, especially of people able to work and young population, and this trend persists. Consolidation of the migration of well-educated young people is being witnessed. Therefore, we have very big population quality losses and these changes can have a very negative impact on the socioeconomic development of the Republic of Moldova during the next decades. The director of the Demographic Research Center Olga Gagauz said that owing to this brain exodus and the population decline, the Republic of Moldova would be less attractive for investment because the number of people able to work is low and the market is small.
“We face population aging. We will have more people for whom the pension will be the main source of income. This can cause a decline in the demand for different services and goods. Respectively, this will have a negative impact on production,” stated Olga Gagauz.
The depopulation of rural areas and concentration of the population in several settlements, especially in the capital city, will cause population declines and problems related to the accessibility of medical services and services to satisfy the needs of the elderly in peripheral settlements. So far, the demographic processes were mainly affected by the unfavorable socioeconomic situation. During the future decades, the impact of the demographic factor on the economy and society in general will be greater because the whole society will be in a way dependent on these changes that took place in the demographic context of the Republic of Moldova.
Reforms are needed to overcome this situation. Society must adjust to this new structure of the population, with a large number of elderly people and a low number of children and young people. “Until now, all the institutions functioned and were aimed at the young population and the able to work people. Now a reorientation will be needed. In fact, the population dynamics must be integrated into all the policies and sector strategies,” said Olga Gagauz.
According to her, the information about the number of people, the distribution by age and sexes must be taken into account in the planning and management of each sector. “We must know how many beds we need for the health protection system, how many maternity hospitals we need given this continuous decline in the number of births. So far we had 40,000 and 38,000 births a year, but, given that more young people leave, we lose those potential parents and there will be small feminine generations of reproductive age, those that were born at the end of the 1990s and at the start of the 2000s. The number of births will decrease continuously, possibly to even 20,000 births a year by 2035,” stated the Center’s director.
In an aging society, the role of the elderly persons will increase. These will have a greater influence on the political class because they will include more persons with the right to vote and will thus influence the results of election campaigns. The young people can become a vulnerable social group, with a small role in society.
Asked how she would like the Republic of Moldova to be, Olga Gagauz mentioned higher living standards, a friendlier and cleaner environment. “We probably do not have much time for putting right the mistakes made the previous period. For now I see no prospects of positive changes. The political situation is very difficult and I do not see those political forces that could change things in the Republic of Moldova. I mean the situation of the ordinary people, the observance of human rights and accessibility to all the necessary services,” she said.
From demographic viewpoint, at the start of the Independence years, the population’s aspirations were very great. Even a higher number of marriages were registered. The number of births was relatively high. But the crisis through which the country went generated a negative trend. “At the start of the 1990s, we had also a very great work potential and if particular reforms had been done or would have been done better, the result would have been different,” considers Olga Gagauz. She yet hopes that the situation will improve and there will be people who will positively influence Moldova’s development.
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Olga Gagauz is the director of the Demographic Research Center, a doctor habilitate in sociology and a researcher.
Anastasia Rusu, IPN
The articles of the series “Thoughts about and for Moldova” started to be published on July 18. Among the protagonists are: Dumitru Alaiba, Iurie Ciocan, Ana-Maria Tulea, Ion Manole, Arcadie Barbarosie, Nicolae Botgros, Igor Dodon, Eugen Doga, Ghenadie Galca, Iulia Iabanji, Iurie Leanca, Petru Macovei, Igor Meriacre, Andrei Nastase, Mariana Onceanu Hadaca, Victor Parlicov, Maia Sandu, and Valeria Seican.
