Moldova currently faces probably the most serious challenges to its economic security since 1991. The current conjuncture is due to the weak and easily influenced state institutions that allowed the propagation of the deep crisis from the banking system and the economic recession in the region. Such conclusions are contained in the State of the Nation Report 2015 that was presented by the Independent Analytical Group “Expert-Grup” at the international conference MACRO-2015. The report was produced in concert with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, IPN reports.
The report says these deficiencies could have been easily overcome if the government had ensured transparency and efficiency in strengthening the country’s economic and social security. The crisis in the banking sector triggered the economic problems faced by the country now. The stealing (of about 12% of the GDP) committed by the three banks of system importance - Banca de Economii, Banca Sociala and Unibank – in 2013-2014 could have been avoided by the National Bank and other competent institutions. The late and insufficient reaction of these institutions can be explained by ill will or incompetence.
The economic growth pace decreased in 2014, while in 2015 the tendency is expected to become negative. The consumers became more cautious about their savings; the exporters are affected by the economic problems faced by Moldova’s main trade partners, while the risks in the financial sector threaten the stability and integrity of the public budget. Though the key socioeconomic indexes – employment, unemployment and incidence of poverty – didn’t worsen much, the worsening of the economic conditions and budget tightness will inevitably lead to the loss of the results in increasing the employment rate and reducing poverty, achieved over the last few years. To rehabilitate the economy, the people’s and business sector’s confidence in the Government must be restored by taking measures to fight high-level corruption and making the ownership relations more transparent.
The education sector is a leader by the reforms done over the last few years. But the reformation pace at education institutions is different, especially at the vocational ones. 2015 was marked by a higher migration of highly-qualified staff and the exodus of talented and skilled public functionaries from public institutions. This can further hamper the implementation of reforms launched and undertaken by the Government.
Moldova is very vulnerable to climate change and this vulnerability is mainly caused by the socioeconomic importance of agriculture at a time when half of the country’s population lives in villages, while about one third is employed in the agricultural sector.
The country’s internal and external policy was marked by European élan outside and by the stagnation of reforms inside, while the analyzed period was marked by significant changes in the political sector, characterized by the diminution of the weight of the pro-European forces and the strengthening of the position of the pro-Russian forces.
To minimize the impact of these risks, civil society, together with the development partners, must exert increased pressure on the government so that the parties are democratized and the democratic institutions and the European course are strengthened, while the Russian propaganda must be counteracted and a strategic dialogue with Ukraine must be developed, says the State of the Nation Report 2015.
