The current NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana leads in the voting intentions for the presidential election in Romania, with 26.7%, and is followed by the chairman of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu – 17.8% and the USR leader Elena Lasconi, who would gain 14.3% of the vote, shows a survey conducted by INSCOP and commissioned by News.ro. Almost three-quarters of the Romanians said that they would definitely go to vote, IPN reports.
The PSD and PNL voters, people over 30 years old, those with higher education and white collar workers declared in a higher proportion than the average that they would definitely go to vote. Among those who expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they said that they would definitely vote or not (85.8% of the sample), 26.7% of those surveyed would vote for Mircea Geoana – independent (compared to 23.7% in May 2024), 17.8% for Marcel Ciolacu – PSD (18.2% in May), 14.3% for Elena Lasconi – USR (measured for the first time in 2024; comparatively, Cătălin Drulă in May attracted 8.6% of the options), while 13.4% for Diana Şoşoacă – SOS Romania (12.5% in May). For Nicolae Ciucă – PNL, 11.9% of the electors would vote (11.5% in May), for George Simion – AUR 11.2% (13.5% in May), for Kelemen Hunor – UDMR 3.4% (5.5% in May). 1.2% said they would vote for another candidate (0.8% in May). Dacian Cioloş was no longer measured in the June poll.
If Marcel Ciolacu and Mircea Geoană reach the presidential runoff, 63.7% of the respondents who chose a candidate would vote for the NATO Deputy Secretary General, while 36.3% for the PSD leader. If Mircea Geoană and Nicolae Ciucă contend, 63.7% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the NATO Deputy Secretary General, while 36.3% for the PNL leader. If Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă reach the runoff vote, 54.6% of those who expressed their preference for a candidate would vote for the PSD leader, while 45.4% for the PNL leader.
“The voting intention for the presidential election is marked by a series of changes in the options given that, compared to last month, Elena Lasconi on behalf of the USR, is measured for the first time in 2024, while Dacian Cioloş was no longer measured because he announced his intention to withdraw from active political life. Under these conditions, the rankings undergo particular changes. Mircea Geoană remains the leader in the voting options in the first round, with a higher percentage than in May and leads detachedly in all the runoff finals in which he was measured. The NATO Deputy Secretary is followed by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who retains his percentage of about 18%, at a distance of almost 9 points from the first place. Elena Lasconi gained by 3.5 percent less than Marcel Ciolacu. The USR leader is followed by Diana Şoşoacă, whose rating improved slightly, Nicolae Ciucă, who stagnates, and George Simion, whose rating decreased,” said Remus Ştefureac, director of INSCOP Research.
The data for the opinion poll were collected during June 19-27, 2024, using the CATI method (telephone interviews). The simple stratified sample was 1,100 people, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and older. The maximum permissible data error is ± 2.95%, at a 95% confidence level.
