Ukraine is no longer what it was in 2014 and its armed forces are also different. Russia’s behavior in the escalation of the events depends on Ukraine’s resistance level. Even if the support of the Western states is different from that of 2014, Ukraine will resist, with or without the support of the West, Ukraine’s Ambassador in Chisinau Marko Shevchenko stated in a public debate at IPN.
As to his panel mates’ opinion that Russia will try to create another negotiation platform that it will impose on Kiev instead of the Minsk one that is no longer valid now that the separatist territories were recognized by Russia, the ambassador said that Ukraine didn’t accept to negotiate directly with the “republics” within the Minsk dialogue when these were not recognized and will surely not accept now. “I don‘t think that Ukraine will be able to negotiate with these directly. That’s why Russia has only one instrument: to impose its will by military ways. Russia will probably seek to intervene further,” said the diplomat.
In such conditions, the ambassador said his country is determined to put up military resistance, if necessary. “Now Ukraine has initiated diplomatic approaches. It primarily goes to consultations with countries that signed the Budapest Memorandum, assuming particular security guarantees. Ukraine is waiting to see the sanctions promised by the Western states... We are calm. Ukraine does not want to follow the military path, but is ready to put up resistance with all the available forces”.
As to Ukraine’s requests to the West, Marko Shevchenko said that his country wants the development partners to say what Ukraine’s chances to join the EU and NATO are. “It is very hard to do reforms and to defend the country. When you are confronted by a larger state with a larger potential, this means you need to invest more in defense than in reforms. We want the guarantees promised by the Budapest Memorandum to be put into practice. This will enable Ukraine to create conditions for doing economic and democratic reforms... But I repeat, we will cope, with or without the support of the West. The West’s support would mean less bloodshed”.
As to the lessons for Moldova, Marko Shevchenko said that in 2014, when Ukraine invaded, it was a neutral state. “It had all the possible treaties that guaranteed the sovereignty and inviolability of the borders with Russia. So, the first lesson is that when we have to deal with the Russian Federation, we should not bank on legal guarantees or the neutrality status. These will not work when Russia decides to violate them. The second lesson is related to the Russian propaganda, which is sometimes more powerful than the weapon itself. This is used inside the country and Russia is a champion in handling both of the instruments”.
The ambassador noted that any scenario can be applied with regard to Moldova in the future. He thanked the Moldovan authorities for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ prompt reaction to the recognition by Russia of the Ukrainian breakaway republics.
The public debate “Ukraine’s requests to the West vs Moscow’s scenarios” is the 225th installment of the debates held by IPN as part of the project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
