Investment Boom in 2007 was prepared in 2006. Economic Commentary by Info-Prim Neo

After Moldova encountered significant regresses in the field of foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2006, as well as in other sectors, authorities announce an “explosion” in FDI in 2007. A rather daring forecast of the Moldova Export Promotion Organisation attests that in this year “we will witness a foreign investment boom”. In order to see though how real these forecasts are, one should firstly see which their premises are and what they are grounded on. On the macroeconomic level, 2007 will not be essentially better than the previous year: relatively low pace of economic growth will be maintained, trade deficit will continue going up and no big changes will happen in reforms. However, compared to 2006, this year does not forecast new external shocks – wine exports to Russia are to be resumed, import price for natural gases will be stable for the entire year, there is agreement in the relations with international financial bodies and foreign donors, and the Paris Club accepted the restructuring of a part of the external debts. Moreover, foreign partners announced their intention to massively credit the Moldovan economy in the following 3 years (USD 1.2 bln), including with non-repayable funds. Therefore, compared to 2006, this year Moldova’s economy is much more stable, and the evolutions are much more foreseeable, a fact which is an advantage in the process of attracting foreign direct investments. On the other hand, Moldova became a direct neighbour of the European Union and, consequently, a potential target for foreign investors, who will be searching for new markets for the migration of producing capacities, after Romania and Bulgaria will gradually adopt community’s standards, including costs policies. Thus, from the points of view of both internal and external market, 2007 is much more favourable for attracting foreign investments. However, besides the better stability on the macroeconomic level it is essential for an investment boom that there already should be a series of projects on the market, which would assure an essential inflow of investments. And it seems that 2007 meets two qualities which are important for a rapid growth of investments: a relative macroeconomic stability and the existance of some important projects. [Main investment projects in 2007] Eventis Mobile Company, the holder of the third mobile telephony in GSM standard license will start the construction of its own network. According to our evaluations, the amount of investments could reach USD 40 to 50 mln. The investments in the Giurgiulesti naval project will go on (totalling USD 250 mln). Also, the subproject for building the network of gas stations could be initiated – investments would reach around USD 40 mln. EBRD announced about the availability of some projects, amounting to about USD 40 mln in 2007. The new owner of “Mobiasbanca”, the French financial group Societe Generale, will operate investments for the bank’s development. The following events could complete the list of the mentioned processes: - Activation of the privatisation process, including the assets from wine production and energy industry; - Foreign investors’ increased interest in the insurance market; - Entrance of new investors on the banking market; - Increased interest in the construction and real estate sectors. Taking into consideration all these factors, we can forecast an amount of direct foreign investments that would top USD 300 mln, which means a 30-40% growth by the end of 2007. According to the preliminary data, the amount of foreign direct investments in 2006 slightly exceeded the sum of USD 200 mln, compared to USD 260 mln in 2005, and USD 240 mln in 2004.