If Ukraine resists the Russian military aggression, the neighboring country will be the key to the final Transnistrian conflict settlement, expert Igor Boțan stated in a public debate hosted by IPN. According to him, the Transnistrian conflict will be solved when the great powers decide to restore the regional architecture destroyed by Russia’s war against Ukraine and will involve the withdrawal of the Russian army and the integration of the region into the constitutional space of the Republic of Moldova.
The expert noted that now it is not sensible to seek immediate solutions to the Transnistrian conflict and the dispute should remain frozen until Moldova’s European path becomes solid and irreversible.
“Due to the Transnistrian conflict, Moldova has a European development course. If the Transnistrian region had accepted an autonomous status like Gagauzia did, my conviction is that the pro-Moscow political forces would have dominated the capital of the Republic of Moldova, and the Republic of Moldova, as it was promised during the 2001 election campaign, would have been part of the Russia-Belarus Union. So, there is no bad without good. The flip side is that this conflict has saved the Republic of Moldova, which is an EU accession state and was given the green light to start negotiations. My opinion is that this conflict must be maintained in its frozen state for a particular period until the European integration course becomes irreversible,” said the permanent expert of IPN’s project.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s victory in Russia’s war of aggression against the neighboring country will ensure the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. For the European integration to be supported by the citizens on the left side of the Nistru, the authorities in Chisinau must ensure the quality of life of the people on the right bank improves.
“The Republic of Moldova has assumed the mission to support Ukraine, and Ukraine is the key to the final Transnistrian conflict settlement, if Ukraine resists this Russian aggression. Things are moving in an interesting direction. Last week, Ukraine’s representative said that Ukraine will no longer take part in the 5+2 format, devaluing it in fact. Thus, the 5+2 format falls apart. Without Ukraine it makes no sense to return to this format. In the future, the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border will most likely be blocked and the Transnistrian region will be forced to communicate only with Chisinau in order to realize its commercial interests. Such a scenario is anticipated, but we must not rush to seek immediate solutions to this conflict now. First of all, the living standards on the right bank must become attractive to the citizens from the left bank of the Nistru. When negotiations on the 35 accession chapters make headway, the solution to the Transnistrian conflict will also be in sight,” said Igor Boțan.
He noted that the solution for the country’s reintegration involves the unconditional withdrawal of the Russian army and ammunition from the left bank of the Nistru and the identification of a legal status for the Transnistrian region, in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova.
“When the great powers sit down at the negotiating table to restore the regional architecture that was destroyed by the Russian aggression, it will be the right moment to seek a final solution that will include the withdrawal of the Russian army from the left side of the Nistru and the integration of the region into the constitutional space of the Republic of Moldova,” said the expert.
The public debate entitled “Frozen conflicts: genesis, dangers, settlement” was the 26th installment of IPN’s project “Impact of the Past on Confidence and Peace Building Processes” which is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.
