If the presidential elections are won by Igor Dodon, Moldova will remain with frozen relations with its neighbors and the integrationist course will be unclear. In other words, Moldova will keep the status-quo. If Maia Sandu wins office of President, the relations with the neighboring states could be good, the relationship with the EU could improve considerably and that with the U.S. could also improve. As regards Russia, this country declared it will cooperate with any of the candidates who will win. However, it is up to the people to decide if Moldova will remain with frozen relations or not, the standing exert of IPN’s project Igor Boțan said in the public debate “To Whom and to What voters of candidates who didn’t reach runoff migrate?” that was staged by IPN.
The expert noted he does not believe that any of the candidates who reached the runoff will lose the votes gained in the first round as those voters form part of the “hard core”. The two candidates represent two poles by which society in Moldova is divided. In the runoff vote, the unionist voters will most probably vote for the pro-European candidate. The candidates who could support Igor Dodon, in particular Violeta Ivanov, refrained from pronouncing on the issue.
“17% of the electors voted for a candidate who announced from the start that he is a non-system candidate, does not embrace any official doctrine, does not pronounce on any of the integration directions. His message was neither for nor against any of the two candidates who reached the runoff. It was rather against corruption and this message was a kind of induction for the voters of Renato Usatyi,” stated the expert.
Igor Boțan noted that a concrete problem formulated in Usatyi’s speeches was the removal of the politicians who are associated with corruption in Moldova. That’s why his message to the voters was that if Maia Sandu finds an acceptable solution for dissolving Parliament, he will call on his supporters to vote this candidate as this would enable the Our Party to become a parliamentary party that can strengthen itself in Moldova.
In another development, Igor Boțan said the Shor Party is the same “Ravnopravie” Party that pleaded for Moldova’s union with the Russian Federation and that changed its name by the name of the new leader Ilan Shor. This has a particular reputation and is supported by people by the principle “all the politicians are thieves, but several of them are better as they share their property with us”. These voters will most probably vote for the pro-Eurasian candidate. Violeta Ivanov would openly support Igor Dodon but cannot as she holds the “Poisoned Apple” and would do a disfavor to Igor Dodon by saying that she supports him.
The voters of Andrei Năstase will support Maia Sandu because the declared goal of Andrei Năstase is to fight corruption and state capture. The key message of Tudor Deliu in the election campaign was the re-launch of the European course of the Republic of Moldova and its clear who his voters will support. But the political leaders are not the masters of the people who vote them and they can only urge their supporters to vote a particular candidate.
The voters of Octavian Țîcu will rather support Maia Sandu, but the former candidate had rather harsh messages concerning her and this can have a particular impact. Dorin Chirtoacă said from the start that he supports Maia Sandu.
The debate “To Whom and to What voters of candidates who didn’t reach runoff migrate?” was the seventh installment of the electoral cycle “We and the President: who elects who, who represents who” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
