IDIS Viitorul projects 10-10.3 lei per USD1 by year-end

The exchange rate of the Moldovan leu to the US dollar will be 10.0-10.3 lei by year-end, and 14.6-15.1 lei to the euro, experts of IDIS Viitorul think tank predict. The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) “will have to buy some $30-40 million till the year-end not to allow the leu to appreciate again. This means an additional injection of over 1 billion lei on the market till the year-end," reads the last edition of the Institute's economic forecast and analysis quarterly Monitorul Economic. The experts believe, however, that amount does not exert major inflation pressure, since till the year-end the commercial banks will sterilize some 200-250 million lei through compulsory reserves. The economic unit of the think tank has reviewed its forecasts after the latest development of the Moldovan economy. “We consider the industry will not be able to attain the expected growth this year (it will allegedly be up 5.5%, instead of 13% initially planned)," the experts point out. The retail will rise some 7%, partially due to the unavoidable statistical growth in the wake of the general trend of organizing the commerce. The services will grow slowly, within the projected boundaries of 5%, while the investments and constructions will slow down 10% and 5%, respectively, in comparison with the initial forecasts. The experts are more pessimistic concerning the economic growth in the wake of world financial crisis and predict an economic growth of 4%, instead of the Governmentally planned 6%.