If the balance of power in the Black Sea region inclines to Russia, it could be catastrophic for regional security, including for the Republic of Moldova. The future of the Black Sea region depends to a large extent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. The opinions were expressed in an interview with RFE/RL’s Moldovan Service by Robert E. Hamilton, PhD, Head of Research of the at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program.
According to Hamilton, if Russia wins or even keeps the territories it has seized so far, the Black Sea could effectively become a "Russian lake", just as it was a space controlled by the Soviets during the Cold War.
"This would have catastrophic implications for regional security. It could lead to increased militarization of the region, limiting trade access and possibly undermining the stability of neighboring countries, such as Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria," said Robert Hamilton.
At the same time, the dynamics in Eastern Europe vary depending on how well countries are anchored in Western organizations. Romania, for example, is deeply integrated into the EU and NATO, while Moldova, although it is a candidate for EU membership, cannot join NATO without a constitutional amendment. States like Moldova, which are not fully integrated into Western institutions, remain vulnerable to influence and interference from China and Russia.
"For example, we know that Russia actively interfered in Moldova's internal politics, including through attempts to buy votes in the recent presidential election and in the referendum on EU membership. Even in countries like Romania, which are firmly anchored in the organizations of the West, interference persists," noted the official.
At the same time, for countries such as Moldova, which is a candidate for EU membership but not a member of NATO, the key is to balance the opportunities and risks associated with initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The real risks of BRI projects lie in the way they are implemented.
"However, BRI projects can provide tangible benefits. They are building the infrastructure needed for countries like Moldova to integrate into the global economy, advance trade and improve connectivity," said Robert Hamilton.
The lesson for Moldova is to take advantage of the benefits offered by these projects, while remaining vigilant about potential disadvantages, such as labor problems, environmental degradation, and corruption. By addressing these risks, Moldova can benefit economically without becoming overly dependent on China, noted Robert Hamilton.