Government updates economic forecasts for 2009

The government predicts a 5% decrease of the GDP, compared to 2008. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Dodon told a press conference that the figure is realistic and that, in fact, it corresponds to the prognosis of the International Monetary Fund, Info-Prim Neo reports. “Even though IMF forecasts a 9% decrease, estimated in money the value of the GDP is to reach 60.7 billion lei – a figure which is practically identical to our own calculations”, Dodon mentioned, while specifying that the Government and the IMF have applied different methodologies when calculating the value. The official also said that starting June, there probably won’t be any deflation registered, which isn’t good for the economy of Moldova in a period of crisis. The inflation rate will constitute 6%. The Government forecasts a reduction of the industrial production by 20%, of exports – by 20% and of imports – by 25%, compared to the figures registered last year. However, Dodon mentioned, the situation in Moldova, taking into account the recent political events, is better than in some neighboring countries. The economist Veaceslav Negruta has expressed some doubts concerning the accuracy of the Government’s calculations. He says that the IMF’s 9% dicrease prognosis is more realistic. He also stated that, when updating forecast for 2009, the Government ignored the evolutions in two major sectors: agriculture and services. Comparison with Germany, USA, the Russian Federation and Ukraine is not relevant, the economist says. These countries possess enormous amounts of resources and have launched anti-crises programs in the right time.