Geopolitics of elections in Moldova’s capital and European factor, OP-ED

The mayoral runoffs that will be held in Chisinau municipality on June 3, 2018 will show if the population gives priority to geopolitical cleavages or prefers to vote for the most convincing solutions for developing the city. Given the concentration of at least 23% of the country’s population (2017- 820.500 persons of 3.5 million), the vote for the capital city is considered essential for influencing the internal and external orientation of Moldova.

Compared with other regions of the country, the ethnical structure of Chisinau is more heterogeneous and the Russian language here is used massively, alongside the predominant Romanian language. The data of the census of 2004 show a significant presence of ethnic groups. Of the total of 34 administrative units (without the Transnistrian region), the ethnical diversity of Chisinau places it fifth after the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, Taraclia, Balti municipality and Ocnita, where the population formed of Moldavans/Romanians varies between 5% and 57%. Even if the ethnical composition of Chisinau is exploited by the political forces with the aim of disseminating geopolitical messages, only politicians oriented to the West won the elections here during the 27 years of independence.

Inside the Moldovan political class, there is the dominant conviction that when the capital city is under control, one can enter big politics by the model of the last two elected mayors - Serafim Urechean (1994-2005) and Dorin Chirtoaca (2007-2017). The last two used the post of mayor to propel their political organizations (“Our Moldova” Alliance and Liberal Party), which this way managed to take part in the administration of the country after 2009. Such reasons always distracted attention from the real problems of the city, increasing the capital city’s dependence on the electoral calculations of the political forces interested in governance.

The Party of Socialists’ representative Ion Ceban and the leader of the Party “Platform Dignity and Trut” Andrei Nastase will compete in the runoffs after polling 40.9% and, respectively 32.1% of the ballot in the first round of voting (with a turnout of about 35% or 225 919 persons), held on May 20, 2018. Their electoral behavior shows a more visible interest in the political agenda of the parties that are behind them rather than in the public agenda of the city. However, owing to the post held on the Chisinau Municipal Council since 2015, Ion Ceban objectively knows better the situation in the capital city than Andrei Nastase. The geopolitical factor and mobilization of voters who were undecided in the first round of voting will determine the choice of the new mayor of Chisinau.

(Geo)electoral estimates

Both Ion Ceban and Andrei Nastase bank on the support of the Chisinau voters who, during the elections of the past three years, favored the forces associated with the European Union. The votes gained in the local elections of 2015 and the presidential elections of 2016 confirm that the pro-Russian forces face difficulties in obtaining a majority. That’s why their victory requires an increased level of mobilization of the own voters and demobilization of the pro-European voters. From this viewpoint, the Socialists and other pro-Russian forces are every time outstripped by the parties that promote the European course. (See Table 1)

 

Table 1. Results of previous elections depending on geopolitical orientation of candidates and political parties that support candidates for Chisinau mayoralty

Ion Ceban (pro-Russia)	Andrei Nastase (pro-EU)
Presidential elections (only voters in Chisinau municipality)
Igor Dodon – 181 544	Maia Sandu – 199 515
Local elections of 2015
Forces associated with Russia	Forces associated with the EU
Party of Socialists – 91 983 Party of Communists – 14 901 “Our Party” -18 358       Total – 125 242	Liberal Party – 85 693 Liberal Democratic Party – 10 487 Electoral Bloc “Iurie Leanca” – 33 511 Democratic Party – 7 941   Total – 137 632

Source: Data collected from website of Central Electoral Commission and e-democracy.md

 

The limit of the Socialists’ popularity in Chisinau was confirmed during the referendum of November 2017, which was invalidated owing to the non-achievement of the minimum voter turnout (35%). Except for the presidential elections of 2016, the Socialists were able to attract up to 94,000 votes, including when the voters were powerfully dissatisfied with the performance of the mayor and the multiple cases of corruption. (See Table 2)

 

Table 2. Electoral options stated in previous elections

	Ion Ceban	Andrei Nastase
Referendum on dismissal of Dorin Chirtoaca, 2017	93 720	-
First round of municipal elections, May 20, 2018	91 575	71 803

Source: Data collected from website of Central Electoral Commission
 

Immediately after the first round of voting, on the one hand, a series of parties announced they will support Andrei Nastase. On the other hand, Socialist Ion Ceban is for now in a vacuum of political support. (See Table 3)
 

Table 3. List of political parties that support one of the two candidates in runoffs in Chisinau municipality

	Supporting parties and their results in first round of voting
Andrei Nastase	Liberal Party – 8 078 National Unity Party – 10 163 National Liberal Party – 385
Ion Ceban	None

 

To offset this handicap, the Socialists spent about 322,000 lei during the first week of the election campaign prior to the runoff vote, as opposed to the spending of 5 lei reported by Andrei Nastase. Ion Ceban also tries to distract public attention from the lack of political support by increasing visibility based on Andrei Nastase’s refusal to take part in the debates initiated by the Socialists.

Any appearance alongside his opponent can affect Nastase’s popularity. Until May 2018, this didn’t have many contacts with the affairs of the City Hall and focused mainly on the consolidation of the extraparliamentary opposition. Consequently, Nastase is practically forced to hide these shortcomings by ignoring the surprise meetings with Ceban.

Stakes of political parties

For the large parties, both those that take part in the runoffs and those that only view these, the elections in the capital city have a value added for the parliamentary elections of 2018.

In case of a victory, the Socialists will strengthen their position in the capital city where 11 members of the future Parliament will be elected based on the mixed electoral system, in single-member constituencies.

If the candidate of the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” is elected mayor, the party could use this success to cement the voters and then to increase the party’s popularity at national level. This way the public support for the forces that form the extraparliamentary opposition, where Maia Sandu and the Party “Action and Solidarity” have prevailed after the presidential elections of November 2016, could be balanced out. The Democrats have no favorable candidate for the runoffs after  Silvia Radu remained outside the electoral competition. At the same time, these refused to publicly support the candidates in the runoffs, even if they actively supported the idea of fielding a common candidate of the pro-European forces before the first round of voting.

From tactical viewpoint, any of the two candidates can be promoted by the Democrats. So, if the mayoralty is won by the Socialists, the geopolitical rhetoric for the parliamentary election of 2018 will be stimulated. When the voters are hysterical due to the political expansion of the pro-Russian forces, the Democrats can easier attract the undecided pro-European voters and dilute the criticism of the extraparliamentary opposition. At the same time, Ceban’s victory can become a useful argument in the government’s attempts to soften the harsh position of the European institutions and to promote the necessity of a coalition of the pro-European forces so as to save the European course.

If the post of mayor of Chisinau is won by Andrei Nastase, the Democrats could also benefit. First of all, this way one of the leaders of the extraparliamentary opposition will be preoccupied with the problems of the capital city, which will necessitate the cumulated attention and efforts of the party and the media sources that support Andrei Nastase. Secondly, if Nastase does not cope with the affairs in the capital city, this will become the target of criticism and an eventual source of voter disappointment in the opposition’s capacities before the parliamentary elections of the end of 2018. Last but not least, if Nastase holds the mayoralty this fact could be used to encourage the Democrats’ approach to promote the necessity of cooperation between the pro-European forces.

Both of the scenarios could be exploited by the Democrats. For now, the press affiliated to this party presents Andrei Nastase in a negative light. This can reveal the Democratic Party’s interest in having the Socialist candidate as mayor in Chisinau, not Andrei Nastase.

Instead of conclusion...

The electoral options of the inhabitants of Chisinau favor the pro-European forces more than the pro-Russian ones. There is also a more visible mobilization potential inside the pro-EU voters, but this depends on the attraction force and mobilization of the political parties.

Even if the Socialist Ion Ceban has a better understanding of the situation in Chisinau than the candidate of the Platform “Dignity and Truth”, the pro-Russian voters in the capital city seem to be  less active. Instead of geopolitical messages that limit his access to the undecided voters, Ion Ceban raises more practical subjects for the residents. At the same time, Andrei Nastase uses messages to mobilize the voters and banks on the unity of the pro-European forces.

The Democrats do not have a favorable candidate in the runoffs following Silvia Radu’s failure, but could look for benefits in any of the presented scenarios. However, the importance of the geopolitical rhetoric for the parliamentary elections of 2018 transform Ion Ceban into a more suitable and predictable candidate for the Democrats than Andrei Nastase.