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| Veaceslav Craciun | |
What are the most important problems faced by the inhabitants of the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, what does the local population believe about the rulers and who of the Moldovan politicians they trust more? The answers to these questions can be found in a sociological survey carried out by the Center for Sociological Investigations and Marketing CBS-AXA in cooperation with the Institute for Public Policy, which presented the results of the poll in Comrat last week. There was no surprise in most of the chapters - Gagauzia, before several large election campaigns, remains predictable in terms of political preferences and value references.
How do the people live in Gagauzia and Moldova and who they trust
In general, Gagauz society treats with optimism the situation created in the region. But this cannot be said about the whole country. When asked how things stand in Gagauzia, almost 51% of those polled said things in the region stand well, while 28.7% said things stand badly. Only 21.1 of the respondents consider things in Moldova go well, while 59.5% said the opposite. It should be noted that this indicator in Moldova is much higher. According to the Public Opinion Barometer for May 2018, 71% of those surveyed said things in Moldova follow the wrong direction and only one fourth approved of the direction.
The inhabitants of Gagauzia differently appreciate not only the general state of affairs, but also the population’s welfare and consider that things in this regard in the region differ from the situation in the rest of the country. Answering the question ‘How do the people live in Gagauzia compared with other regions of the country’, only 39.1% said “similarly”, while 21.5% answered “better” or “much better” than in other districts. Exactly 20% of those questioned believe the people in Gagauzia live “worse” or “much worse”.
The top three problems that need to be addressed in Gagauzia immediately are social and economic in character. Some 78.4% of the people in Gagauzia are concerned about the creation of jobs, 67.2 about the low incomes and 52.7% about the economic growth in the region. At the opposite pole, there are such problems as the creation of conditions for the young people to study Romanian (0.5%), development of cooperation with EU regions (0.5%) and ensuring of understanding between people (1.7%).
Compared with the data at national level, the Gagauz people’s confidence in different institutions is specific. In Gagauzia, the church is trusted the most (83.4% of those polled). The next in descending order are the President (71.4%), the Bashkan of the region (71.4%) and the mayor’s office (59.2%). The locals do not really trust Parliament (14.8%), the Government (24.3%) and the army (30.3%). For comparison, according to the Public Opinion Barometer for May, 72% of the Moldovans trusted the church, 37.5% the President, 47.1% the mayor’s office. The Government enjoyed the same level of trust in Gagauzia (26%), while Parliament a slightly higher level (20.7%). The army was trusted much more (47.9%).
Who the Gagauz people see in Parliament
The first election campaign will take place on February 24 and this will cover the whole country. Of the political leaders who will seek support from the Gagauz voters, the locals prefer Igor Dodon (80%), who is followed at a big distance by Renato Usatyi (20%) and Vladimir Voronin (13.6%). Simultaneously, the last two have a high anti-rating that is higher than the level of trust put in them. Thus, 60.7% of those polled do not trust Usatyi, while 69.2% do not trust Voronin. Andrei Năstase and Maia Sandu, who are considered the favorites in the upcoming elections, do not yet have an electoral base in Gagauzia. These are trusted by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, of the people in Gagauzia.
The positions of the political parties are corresponding. The Party of Socialist is trusted by 66.3% of the inhabitants of the region, the Our Party by 19.1%, the Party of Communists by 15%. The Party “Action and Solidarity” and the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” are trusted by less than 2% of the respondents. The ruling Democratic Party is trusted by 5.8% of those surveyed, while its leader Vladimir Plahotniuc by 4.7%. Given that neither the supporters of Usatyi, nor those of the Communists have powerful party bodies in the region four months before the elections, the Socialists feel at ease in Gagauzia. Only the Democrats with their administrative and other kinds of resources can compete with them.
Gagauz politics: current situation and problem of stagnation
After a new composition of Parliament is formed next February, the inhabitants of Gagauzia will enter the atmosphere of other, more important elections for the region – to choose the Bashkan. The People’s Assembly of Gagauzia decided that the elections will take place on May 19. Time will show how the people in Gagauzia vote in seven months. But if the elections were held next Sunday, the current Bashkan Irina Vlah would be supported by 53.3% of those polled. She would be followed by her main rival Nicolai Dudoglo (3.3%), the mayor of Comrat Sergey Anastasov (2.5%) and ex-Bashkan Mihail Formuzal (1.8%).
Amid the evident opposition between the Bashkan and the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, the local public TV channel guided by a Broadcasting Council dominated by persons close to Nicolai Dudoglo and the administrative resources of the branches of most of the state-owned companies (Post Office, Moldtelecom, Gagauz-Gaz) will work against the Bashkan. After four years in power, Irina Vlah attracted particular negativism and her campaign could experience particular difficulties, in contrast to the figures anticipated by the poll. On the other hand, a series of social programs implemented in the region, an active information policy and the eventual success in elections by the allies from the Party of Socialists could represent the main factors of the successful participation in the election campaign.
As the poll conducted by CBS-AXA showed, the top leaders in Gagauzia have been the same for a long period and this is another element typical of the Gagauzia policy. Except for Anastasov, who entered the public administration in 2015 after leaving biasness, the rest of the political elite in the region have been constant for about ten years. Probably for strictly demographical reasons, the young people and the grownups from among whom a new political class is usually formed are now the least numerous categories. The given stagnation affects the competition between young people and their administrative potential.
The sociological poll was carried out at the end of September. The published figures could be useful eventually for the internal expertise of political leaders and affiliated analysts as they are now relative from the viewpoint of the public interest. There is yet time until the main electoral events and the indictors will vary. Besides, the “electoral alms” that are popular in Moldova, the results of the last mayoral elections held in Chisinau and the “surprise” produced by the Central Election Commission two days before the parliamentary elections of 2014 remind that in Moldovan politics, the opinion of citizens is taken into account, but this does not influence much.
Veaceslav Craciun, Comrat
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