The consequences of the pandemic crisis for the economy will be felt for a long period in the future, while the economic crisis didn’t actually start and is yet to be witnessed, said participants in IPN’s public debate “Crisis in Moldova as an indicator of missed opportunities and an occasion for changes”.
Executive director of the European Business Association Mariana Rufa said Swiss and German experts forecast the economic crisis will start at the end of this year and will develop in the course of 2021.”The current developments are not a crisis, but a shock, a blow to the economy given by the pandemic. The crisis itself will yet come. An earthquake occurred and this will be followed by a tsunami,” stated Mariana Rufa.
Ex-deputy prime minister Alexandru Muravski also considers that improvements in the economy will not be seen after the pandemic crisis ends. “We, as the whole world, are in a state of uncertainty. The situation is new and unclear. Therefore, there are many and different forecasts. On the one hand, Europe started to return to recover and this gives hope that the borders will be opened and exports will be resumed. On the other hand, in some of the European countries, they ask to reintroduce quarantine. This turbulence generates difficulties in taking decisions, choosing models and making forecasts. When the pandemic wave only began, the world was preparing for a slight recession. Now the IMF forecasts the global GDP will decline by 5%,” stated Alexandru Muravski.
According to him, the current crisis is for Moldova much more serious than the crisis witnessed in 1998. “Then the crisis was exclusively financial-economic one. Now the situation is completely different as it is dominated by uncertainty,” noted the economist.
Explaining the difference between the situation witnessed 20 years ago and the current situation, he reminded that the crisis of 1998 was unexpected and swift. “The technical default announced by Russia on August 17 caused a shock that resulted in considerable losses. However, towards the end of 1999 already Moldova returned to economic growth and it happened so because the character of the crisis was clear. Currently, there is no such clarity. They are discussing different models, but the government has to act ad-hoc and such a situation will most probably continue until next year.”
The project’s standing expert Ștefan Gligor also anticipates a new escalation in the crisis, with more serious consequences for the Moldovan economy. “This is first of all due to the fact that the anti-pandemic measures in Moldova were late and insufficient. This led to a crisis in the healthcare system and made the stopping of the economy for two months ineffective. Secondly, Moldova didn’t find mechanisms to minimize the effects of the pandemic, like electronic governance, for example. We have to come into contact in business, in social matters and in the obtaining of state services,” he stated.
According to the expert, the healthcare system in Moldova is close to a collapse and, if it is not helped to cope with the demand, we should expect a new pandemic wave and the worsening of the economic crisis.
The public debate entitled “Crisis in Moldova as an indicator of missed opportunities and an occasion for changes” was held as part of the project “Overcoming European integration stereotypes through communication” that is implemented by IPN News Agency with support from the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
