Election results in Chisinau: wolf entered pen

[Info-Prim Neo analysis] The situation as regards the election of the mayor of Chisinau is more or less clear. Most likely, the current Liberal mayor Dorin Chirtoaca will win the elections in the second round, though in a rather stiff battle with the Communist candidate Igor Dodon. Such a thesis is supported by all the mayoral elections held in Chisinau after the declaration of Moldova’s independence. The Communist Party (PCRM) has never managed to ‘conquer’ the City Hall even if its representatives polled the largest number of votes in the first round. It happened not because certain candidates were more handsome than the others. The secret resides in the fact that the PCRM usually mobilizes all its supporters in the first round of voting, while the center, center-left and right parties offer the dispersed votes to one candidate in the second round, after struggling with each other in the first round. That’s why the Communist candidates are more successful in the first round. The PCRM does not have such a reserve. This is the relative weakness of the Communists’ position of monopolists on the left segment of the political sector. No second rounds are held in the case of the election of the Chisinau Municipal Council (CMC) and all the other local councils. The candidates for councilor include many parties and independents crowded on the segment from the center to the right. Consequently, the PCRM, after winning most of the seats on the CMC, obtained additional seats from those who lose on the right segment as a result of vote redistribution. It happened so every time, including in the June 5 local elections. But now the proportions are different. For the first time the PCRM won an absolute majority of seats in the CMC. “In the capital cit, the PCRM scored the most important victory. For the first time in Moldova’s history, a party obtained the majority of seats on the Municipal Council. This is the Communist Party of Moldova,” it was said in a communiqué issued by the PCRM on June 7. This suggests a similar situation to that described by the title of the analysis ‘the wolf entered the pen’. This happened in silence, without agitation, almost in an unnoticed way as everyone – the political parties and their leaders, the voters, the press, and the analysts - centered almost exclusively on the election of the mayor. But the mayor can do almost nothing in the Council without serious political support, not mentioning a hostile Council without reserves. The relations between the future mayor – the anti-Communist Dorin Chirtoaca - and the future Council controlled by the Communists will be hostile and antagonistic. It is known that the Communist faction in the CMC will hold 26 of the 51 seats. Thus, the Communist councilors will elect the Council’s chairman and name the deputy mayors and the heads of all the municipal departments and services, which, under the law, are controlled by the CMC not the mayor or the City Hall. The mayor can propose candidates for certain posts or their dismissal, but a decision is taken by the Council. Not many people know that the mayor can spend practically no money without the Council’s approval, cannot start and implement projects, including very important for the population and from his electoral program, without the CMC’s decision. But the Communist Council will not approve such decisions. We can already imagine the atmosphere in which the future mayor will work. Such an atmosphere made Serafim Urecheanu yield up his seat of mayor, which was wanted by many of the former Premiers and possible the current one, in exchange for a simple seat of MP in the Opposition. Furthermore, he was involved in a number of criminal cases. A similar situation made Vladimir Voronin give up the post of President of Moldova in 2009, even if he could be head of state until now as a new President was not voted in. Vladimir Voronin admitted that he wouldn’t have been able to work with a hostile Parliament and Government, which represented the Alliance for European Integration (AEI). We should not doubt the hostile character of the future relations if we take into account the earlier lessons of history. The Communist faction will seize power in Chisinau and ‘swallow’ everything and everyone moving in the opposite direction, as during the mandate of 2003-2007. It is true that they then had the zealous support of the PPCD, which contributed to restoring the parliamentary ‘monstrous coalition’ at municipal level. There will be undoubtedly used a perfect voting machine that will be disciplined and compliant with party interests and orders. The behavior of such voting machines was thoroughly described in the collection “Electoral Lessons at the Democracy School in Moldova“ that was published by Info-Prim Neo Agency after the local elections of 2007 {(see Chapter I of the collection, pages 5-14)}. A relevant example that the author of the given analysis knows very well from inside is the fate of the municipal press holding that the ‘coalition’ devoured. It was said then that Radio Antena C and Euro TV Chisinau were sold at derisory prices to the devourers and the years that followed confirmed many of the suspicions. Another media outlet was simply liquidated and the employees thrown out. It is six years after the liquidation, but the head office of that media outlet remains empty and unused. That CMC refused to allow the team to use it. The liquidation of pluralism in the media was then another goal pursued by the former coalition partners in the CMC. Now the PCRM does not even need allies. What should the parties of the AEI do in such a situation? Support the Liberal candidate for mayor, strengthen the ruling alliance by giving up arguments that affected its image and compromised its actions in the current election campaign, find solutions to elect the head of state and avoid early legislative elections, observing the Constitution (the next elections may be even more unfavorable than the local ones), provide support, including financial, to the future mayor, understand that ‘the wolf entered the pen’ and ‘the pen’ is not only the Chisinau City Hall and not only Chisinau, but also the AEI and the Republic of Moldova in general, to a certain extent. [Valeriu Vasilica, Info-Prim Neo]