Moldova will witness a worsening of the economic crisis towards the end of this year, which will be followed by a considerable decline in 2016, analysts of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms say in a study. According to them, the production and trade indexes predict an economic collapse, IPN reports.
Study authors – the Institute’s economic policy moderator Eugen Ghiletski and associate analyst Dumitru Vicol – analyzed two economic indicators: industrial production and retail trade. These show a continuous decrease in the industrial output starting with the middle of 2014, which became more distinct in the first half of this year. The industrial production index fell by 5.8% and, respectively, 3.3% in August and September. The last similar development was witnessed in 2011, after which an economic decline of almost 1% followed in 2012, according to the World Bank data.
Retail trade decreased suddenly in the first quarter of 2015. This August alone, the retail trade index fell by 89%.
“Among the reasons for the so pronounced decline are the high rate of inflation and the deprecation of the national currency,” said the analysts.
According to experts, starting with the third quarter of 2014, when the GDP grew by 5.8%, this indicator declined over the next quarters (4.2%; 4.8%; 2.5%). The World Bank estimated that the downward trend will persist by this yearend and a 2% decrease will be witnessed.
