The European Union and NATO will continue to support Ukraine even if, owing to the recognition of the two secessionist entities, it will be very hard for the official Kiev to promote its agenda. The precedents showed that owing to separatism and the absence of territorial integrity of the country, it was very hard for Ukraine to make progress in its efforts to join the EU and NATO, IPN’s senior contributor Dionis Cenușa, a political scientist, researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany, stated in a public debate hosted by IPN News Agency.
“For the U.S., as for the EU, it is very important to support the allies and to ensure a balance of power in the region. The enlargement of NATO depends not on Moscow’s caprices, but on the sovereign decisions of the states from Russia’s neighborhood. I refer to Georgia and Ukraine. For Russia, it is important to break the political and social cohesion inside these states so as to promote political forces that are very reserved towards the West or are pro-Russian forces. For Russia, it is not important to have enemies in the region. It wants friends, but who are made by force. The main stakes of Russia derive from here. It is not so important to destabilize Ukraine. It rather wants to weaken the current political forces so as to pave the way for other parties and leaders, which would bring back into discussion the restoration of the friendly relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” stated the researcher.
According to him, the most probable scenario is that Russia would create a new format of talks, which Kiev would be unable to ignore as it would involve territories that form part of Ukraine. The West will also be interested in taking part in new formats, even if it penalizes the Russian Federation. The sanctions were already announced. The chief of the EU’s diplomatic service Borrell said that a part of the sanctions that were initially planned for the invasion scenario will be applied the next hours or days. The U.S. is expected to do the same. Russia does not yet seem to be afraid of sanctions and even uses these to strengthen independence from the instruments applied by the West to try and positively influence the political situation in Russia.
Dionis Cenușa noted the direct invasion scenario depends a lot on Ukraine’s position. “President Zelensky already made a call for calm, for calculated decisions as to the developments in the separatist regions as Russia continues to wait for reasons to enter the separatist regions by force,” said the expert, noting the propaganda disseminated by the press controlled by the Kremlin shows they continue to incite a serious military confrontation.
The expert considers the West has all the instruments needed to limit Russia’s sources of aggression, through the agency of sanctions. “The experience of Western sanctions in the case of Crimea and not only help the West to realize that there are new ways that can be explored for hitting punctually, but effectively the Kremlin regime, which takes into account not only the national interests of Russia, but also the personal interests of circles close to Putin. I refer to the kleptocratic relations and oligarchic monopolies. Besides sanctions, the European Union and the United States and also the international financial institutions can offer assistance to Ukraine in the form of financial support,” said Dionis Cenușa.
The public debate “Ukraine’s requests to the West vs Moscow’s scenarios” is the 225th installment of the debates held by IPN as part of the project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
