A number of factors will determine the scenarios after the legislative elections expected to be held in December 2008, political pundit Dionis Cenusa wrote in an article for IPN Agency.
Firstly, the situation will be influenced by the exact number of seats that will be won by the Socialists, the Democrats and the PAS-PPDA duo. These scenarios will also depend on the presence of other parties that will enter the future Parliament through single-member constituencies.
Based on these factors, the politologist anticipates at least three scenarios.
According to the first scenario, the Socialists will win the elections, but will be able to form a government coalition only by attracting other pro-Russian parties that will enter Parliament based on the votes cast in single-member constituencies, such as the PCRM and Our Party. The Socialists could also persuade independent MPs strictly for forming the government and avoiding early elections.
Under the second scenario, the Democrats need to obtain a more favorable position by winning at least 10-15 seats. They will use this to exert pressure on the PAS-PPDA duo so as to make this accept an eventual pro-European government coalition. This component is yet inacceptable for the anti-oligarchic forces. Even if Vladimir Plahotniuc abandons the PDM, the position of the PAS and PPDA will not change radically. The failure of this scenario will produce early elections.
Under the third scenario, the Socialists and the Democrats will form a coalition. The avoidance of rerun elections will be the only explanation for such cohabitation. This scenario is extremely vulnerable because the Socialists will have to face the reaction of Russia, which in 2017-2018 was regularly targeted by the Democrats. If the Socialists are ready to sacrifice the good relations with Moscow and, respectively, their political future by entering an open partnership with the PDM, the suspicions about the existence of cooperation between the PDM and PSRM will be confirmed.
Anyway, which of the scenarios is put into practice and what the country’s external orientation will be starting with 2019 will depend on the quality of the Moldovans’ vote, concluded the expert.
