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| Anatol Țăranu | |
Well-known American analyst George Friedmann, founder of Geopolitical Futures, in an interview with Mauldin Economics expressed his belief that the United States, under the leadership of the Trump administration, is actively shaping a new world order, using negotiations over the conflict in Ukraine as a key element of this strategy. According to the expert, Russia suffered a military defeat in Ukraine, which significantly weakened Vladimir Putin's position and destroyed the idea of Russia as a great power. Friedman describes the conflict not as a simple confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but as "a ballet between Russia and America, with Ukraine as the stage".
Putin's de facto failure
Friedmann argues that Russia has not achieved any strategic goal in the war in Ukraine. According to him, "the Russian army has failed in three years to conquer a country considered militarily inferior. It is an absolute failure. Russia suffered massive human casualties, undermined its international standing and spent huge financial resources. And what did Putin get in return? Absolutely nothing".
This failure has considerably weakened Putin's position domestically, and the consequences will become increasingly visible over time. Even in a tightly policed regime, sporadic and material protests are already emerging to challenge his decisions. Although he tries to present himself as a victor capable of a reasonable solution, the reality is different: it is a classic political trick, designed to turn defeat into an illusion of success.
The American expert concludes that the myth of Russia as a great power has been shattered. "If they can't beat Ukraine, who can they beat? Armenia?" - Friedmann asks rhetorically. He emphasizes that Russia has lost its status as a significant player, something Donald Trump is fully aware of.
Trump and the new world order
Donald Trump is currently reconfiguring the world order, believing that the current system is irrational. Friedmann, although he did not support him in the election and does not like him as a politician, recognizes that "the man knows exactly what he is doing". He points out that Trump is acting in a context where Europe is not a unitary state but a collection of disparate entities on which he cannot rely. At the same time, Russia, while not completely destroyed, is facing significant economic decline.
As for China, Friedmann notes that this country is also going through a period of economic stagnation, which is why it is trying to form an alliance with Japan - a historically difficult partner, which he finds ironic. In this context, the US remains the only superpower capable of intervening and shaping a new world order.
Turning to the conflict in Ukraine, the expert emphasizes that it is not just about negotiations over Ukraine, but is part of a wider process that is redefining the global balance, involving actors such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States. He insists that there are currently no fundamental ideological contradictions between the US and Russia. "Communism is a thing of the past and now they are all businessmen or oligarchs," says Friedmann. Moreover, he believes that "Russia no longer poses a military threat to Europe, a problem that was solved in World War II".
Friedmann also draws attention to the fragility of the current international system, which he describes as "a world without an anchor". After the failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the old global coordinates collapsed. Whereas during the Cold War, states defined their position in relation to two poles of power - the US and the USSR - today there is no central opposition to structure international relations.
Changing world order and historical precedents
The possible Russian-American rapprochement in the context of peace in Ukraine creates strategic challenges for China, limiting its options on the international stage. Donald Trump supports the idea of a neutral Ukraine, seen both as a supplier of mineral resources and as part of a broad reconstruction strategy.
"Ukraine's neutrality will only be guaranteed if two essential conditions are met: US access to mineral resources and the exclusion of Ukraine's membership of NATO. The North Atlantic Alliance has already lost its relevance as a military force, becoming rather a platform for diplomatic meetings," Friedmann says.
In this geopolitical landscape, Ukraine is no longer a decisive player in the new world order, but a battleground between major powers. At the same time, Russia's military campaign has highlighted Moscow's limitations in occupying significant territories, weakening its global position and condemning it to a secondary role in the new international configuration. Thus, the traditional concept of neutrality - defined by non-alignment with either the Russian or American blocs - is becoming less and less relevant in the context of a possible rapprochement between Moscow and Washington.
In order to implement this new world order, Trump is willing to break established rules when they become ineffective. This approach may seem radical or even illegal. A historical precedent is provided by US President Andrew Jackson, who in the 19th century defied Supreme Court decisions by defiantly declaring, "If the court has made a decision, let it be enforced." Similarly, Franklin D. Roosevelt used his first 100 days in office to quickly reform the banking system at the height of the financial crisis, avoiding congressional gridlock.
According to Friedmann, Trump is following Roosevelt's model, acting quickly to implement major changes before political opposition can block them. In parallel, he is resorting to controversial statements - such as the idea of integrating Canada into the United States - to divert public attention while reinforcing his geopolitical strategy. Aware of the limited time before his opponents mobilize, Trump is accelerating the process of reconfiguring the world order.
Moldova, where to?
In a situation where neither of the warring parties can gain a decisive advantage - Ukraine is not in a position to fully replace Russian troops, and Europe is not ready for direct military intervention - negotiations become inevitable.
The main participants in the negotiations are the US and Russia. Essentially, the Ukrainian conflict is a confrontation between the United States and Russia, which is taking place on Ukrainian territory. Therefore, peace will be negotiated successfully from the mode of sharing the interests of the main negotiators, all other interests of the other actors being of secondary order.
The Republic of Moldova, a barely visible state on the international scene, has every chance of finding itself on the menu at the feast given in honor of the solemn signing of the peace agreement. This shameful role will be a well-deserved payment for a fragment of a people which denies its historical origins and is incapable of reuniting with its entire nation in order to survive in a world full of existential risks and dangers.
IPN publishes in the Op-Ed rubric opinion pieces submitted by authors not affiliated with our editorial board. The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of our editorial board.