2015 will be similar to 2014 in what concerns the Transnistrian conflict, with real conditions existing for changing the situation, thinks Eduard Tugui, expert on the Transnistrian conflict. However, he says 2015 will be the last favorable year to reach compromise, as a series of arrangements with Tiraspol are coming to an end.
First, Tugui noted the upcoming expiry of the autonomous trade preferences granted by the EU, after which in 2016 the Transnistrian region will need to renew trade arrangements with the EU, which cannot be done without Chisinau.
“Perhaps these arrangements that are going to expire will instill more sense into Tiraspol's actions. But it could also be the other way around, with Tiraspol trying to exercise more pressure in the Security Zone”, says Eduard Tugui.
Chisinau has a host of instruments, says the expert, which should be applied gradually. “There are of course force majeure instruments, but I hope they won't be needed. Basically, Chisinau needs to define with its Ukrainian counterparts which should be the border regime. What I think we should is to introduce a common economic zone with Ukraine, meaning to enable our customs to verify everything that enters Moldova at the Ukrainian border into the Transnistrian region, and the Ukrainian customs to verify everything that exists the region”.
We should not forget, says Eduard Tugui, that the western side of the Nistru is becoming an increasingly larger market for what is manufactured on the eastern side. First, it's a destination for a significant part of the electricity produced in the region, and now it seems that the western side is assisting the region through imports to a greater extent than what Russia is doing through its own aid programs. Eduard Tugui believes that there are more mechanisms, which if wisely applied, could influence Tiraspol to accept compromise.
