The State Secretary of the MFA, Valeriu Mija, stated that the Republic of Moldova wishes to strengthen its partnership with the North Atlantic Alliance through modernization and reform projects of security institutions. According to the official, cooperation with NATO complements the support offered by the EU and contributes to the development of the country’s defense capabilities.

When asked whether the status of neutrality limits the opportunities of the Republic of Moldova to benefit from guarantees or security assistance from NATO or its member states, the Secretary of State explained that neutrality is a legal status that does not prevent the state from strengthening its self-defense capabilities and seeking support from external partners. He invoked the provisions of the United Nations Charter regarding the right of states to self-defense and gave the example of Switzerland, which, although neutral, constantly invests in its own defense capabilities.

At the same time, the head of the NATO Liaison Office in the Republic of Moldova, Agne Gleveckaite, reaffirmed that the Alliance maintains its support for the Republic of Moldova and emphasized that NATO and the European Union act complementarily in supporting the country’s resilience and security. In addition, she highlighted the importance of combating disinformation and ensuring accurate communication regarding the cooperation between the Republic of Moldova and NATO.

At the same time, she stated that the modernization of the security sector is already underway thanks to the support of allies and emphasized that NATO and the European Union are complementary organizations, not rivals, in terms of the support provided to the Republic of Moldova.

In turn, the Polish Ambassador to Chisinau, Tomasz Kobz, noted that the statement adopted at the NATO summit in Ankara sends clear messages about the unity of the Alliance and described the meeting as a success. According to the diplomat, the summit confirmed the unity and determination of the Alliance to defend European security and sent a positive signal, including for the Republic of Moldova.

At the same time, he stated that neutrality implies significant investments in defense, citing the examples of Switzerland, Sweden and Finland. The diplomat emphasized that the experience of these countries demonstrates that neutrality status does not exclude the development of strong defense capabilities and cooperation with international partners.

The participants at the briefing reiterated that the support given to the Republic of Moldova aims at strengthening the resilience and defense capabilities of the state, in accordance with the constitutional options and the foreign policy promoted by the authorities in Chisinau.

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Doina Gherman stated that the incident demonstrates that security threats to the Republic of Moldova persist, and the responsibility for these lies solely with the aggressor state – Russia.

“Unfortunately, we have witnessed a very serious security incident. It doesn’t matter where the drone came from, we all know that the only culprit is the aggressive state of the Russian Federation, which started this barbaric, bloody, unprovoked and unjust war against our neighbors. The security risks remain, nobody has cancelled them. As long as the Ukrainians resist, we will also be safe”, said the Vice President of the Parliament, Doina Gherman, during the “La 360 de grade” show on Radio Moldova.

At the same time, the official emphasized that incidents of this type demonstrate the need to strengthen the defense capabilities of the Republic of Moldova. According to Doina Gherman, the neutrality provided by the Constitution cannot replace the investments in personnel training and the necessary technical equipment for ensuring state security.

“It is essential to strengthen our defense capacity. Beyond the neutrality stipulated in the Constitution, we must strengthen our defense capabilities. Over three decades, no political class has invested in this area. I am also referring to institutional capacity, military training, but also to investments in equipment. Neutrality in the Constitution is a constitutional instrument, but it does not defend us in any way”, explained the Vice President of Parliament.

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To understand the proportions, a historical detail is enough: the so-called “special military operation”, initially presented by the Kremlin as a short and decisive intervention, has already lasted longer than the USSR’s war with Nazi Germany during the Second World War – from June 22, 1941 to the capitulation of Berlin in May 1945. The comparison is not a rhetorical one, but a chronological one. It shows the disproportion between the initial discourse and historical reality.

Four years after the outbreak of the large-scale Russian invasion against Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, the image of Eastern Europe has fundamentally changed. What for some seemed a “regional” conflict, manageable through geopolitical compromises, proved to be a long-lasting confrontation between two irreconcilable visions: one imperial, revisionist, promoted by the Kremlin and another anchored in sovereignty, self-determination and European integration, assumed by Kiev.

For Ukraine, the war has meant destruction, massive human losses, devastated cities and a total mobilization of society. For the Republic of Moldova, the four years have represented a test of historical maturity. We are not part of the military conflict, but we are part of the strategic equation. And the lessons are harsh and impossible to ignore.

Lesson 1: Neutrality does not stop aggression

For the Republic of Moldova, the invasion launched by the Russian Federation in 2022 unequivocally demonstrated that declarative neutrality does not constitute a shield against a revisionist actor. Ukraine was not a member of NATO at the time of the aggression, and this fact encouraged the Kremlin to resort to force. Therefore, the real cause of the war was Kiev’s refusal to remain in Moscow’s sphere of influence and its choice for European integration.

Under these circumstances, the constitutional neutrality of the Republic of Moldova, in the absence of solid external guarantees and a real defense capacity, risks being perceived not as a factor of stability, but as a strategic vulnerability. Security does not derive from legal formulas, but from credible deterrence, functional institutions, international partnerships and the state’s ability to protect its constitutional order.

At the same time, the war debunked the myth of the invincibility of the Russian army and of a supposed blitzkrieg capable of quickly redrawing the political map of the region. Moscow’s initial plan – the rapid capture of Kiev, regime change, and forcing Ukraine’s neutralization – failed, turning the conflict into a war of attrition with enormous costs for Russia.

Paradoxically, the aggression intended to halt NATO’s expansion has produced the opposite effect: the strengthening of the eastern flank and the decision of traditionally cautious states, such as Finland and Sweden, to join the Alliance. Thus, Moscow’s strategic failure not only shattered the myth of a quick victory, but also accelerated the reconfiguration of European security architecture contrary to the Kremlin’s stated objectives.

Lesson 2: “Frozen” conflicts can be thawed at any time

The war initiated by Russia against Ukraine has demonstrated the fragility of “managing” frozen conflict strategies. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the creation of separatist enclaves in Donbas did not represent an end point, but intermediate stages of a broader revisionist plan. Moscow has used these territories as tools of political, military and informational pressure, maintaining a latent conflict that could be escalated at any moment. The large-scale invasion in 2022 showed that “freezing” does not equate to resolution, but merely a strategic postponement of confrontation.

For the Republic of Moldova, this lesson is of pressing relevance. The Transnistrian region remains a structural risk due to the presence of Russian troops and the strengthening of a separatist administration supported by Moscow. Four years of war in Ukraine confirm that an apparently stable conflict can be reactivated depending on the Kremlin’s geopolitical interests.

At the same time, the war has transformed Ukraine into a pillar of the new European security architecture. The extended military support, economic sanctions, and adaptation of NATO strategies show that the stakes go beyond the regional framework. It is no coincidence that, at the level of the European Union, there is increasing talk about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria as an essential element of a future peace arrangement. For Chisinau, this represents a strategic opportunity that must be actively exploited, through the strengthening of external partnerships and a firm and coherent diplomatic positioning.

Lesson 3: Information warfare precedes and accompanies military warfare

Before tanks and missiles, there were narratives. The Kremlin prepared the ground for aggression through a discourse built around the ideas of “denazification”, “protection of minorities”, and defense of the so-called “Russian world”. These themes were systematically propagated throughout the post-Soviet space, including in the Republic of Moldova, to create confusion, relativize the truth, and justify potential coercive actions. The Ukrainian experience shows that informational warfare is not an annex to the military one, but a strategic weapon meant to weaken the resistance will of the target society before the first strike is fired.

In a society fragmented in terms of identity and exposed to external propaganda, informational vulnerability can become a breach in national security. The trivialization of war, the relativization of aggression, or the promotion of false moral equivalences transform a real danger into a “subject of debate”, diluting the perception of strategic risk. Information fatigue and the diminishing public attention can even influence the political will of democratic states.

While Ukraine continues to fight daily, in many Western capitals – including Chisinau – the war risks slipping from the register of existential urgency into that of “complex files”. Recent sociological data indicate an increase in the proportion of Moldovan citizens susceptible to Moscow’s propagandistic narratives about the war. The Ukrainian lesson is clear: resilience begins with critical education, with a strong independent press, and with a state capable of combating disinformation firmly, but without slipping into censorship or arbitrary limitation of freedom of expression.

Lesson 4: National identity is a security resource

One of the major paradoxes of this war is that the aggression of the Russian Federation has consolidated the Ukrainian national identity. In the face of invasion, language, culture, and historical memory have become factors of cohesion and mobilization, and identity has transformed into a veritable shield of resistance. The Kremlin’s attempt to deny the existence of a distinct Ukrainian nation has produced the opposite effect: it has strengthened the sense of belonging and internal solidarity. Thus, identity has proven not to be a cultural detail, but an essential strategic resource in the defense of the state.

For the Republic of Moldova, this lesson is fundamental. The persistence of a “Moldovenist” identity of Soviet extraction – artificially constructed to sever historical, cultural, and linguistic ties with the Romanian space – remains a geopolitically exploitable vulnerability. The identity ambiguity fosters internal divisions and fuels external narratives that challenge the natural belonging of the Republic of Moldova to the Romanian and European cultural space.

In this context, the clear and assumed affirmation of Romanian identity, in its European and democratic dimension, is not a symbolic or ideological gesture, but a direct investment in national security. A society confident in its own historical and cultural landmarks is less permeable to propaganda, more internally cohesive and more capable of defending its strategic European option.

Lesson 5: European integration is not just an economic project

The attainment of EU candidate country status by Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, in 2022, was a political response to Russian aggression. The European Union understood that expansion is also a tool for geopolitical stabilization.

For the Republic of Moldova, the European journey can no longer be treated as a partisan internal political issue. It is a framework for strategic anchoring. Four years of border war have demonstrated that the gray areas are the most exposed. European integration means functional institutions, rule of law, connected economy, and, implicitly, reducing exploitable vulnerabilities.

Lesson 6: Solidarity matters

Ukraine has resisted also thanks to external support – military, financial, humanitarian. No country can stand alone against a revisionist power of the size of the Russian Federation. Networks of alliances and partnerships are essential.

For the Republic of Moldova, relations with the European Union, Romania, and the United States are not just simple diplomatic options. They are components of the security architecture. In a volatile regional context, isolation is not a solution.

The final lesson: History is not over

Perhaps the most important lesson of the four years of war is that peace is not irreversible. The post-Cold War European order, built on the principles enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and reaffirmed after 1991, was challenged by force by the Russian Federation under the leadership of Vladimir Putin. The illusion of a “post-historical” era, in which borders would be untouchable and war would be excluded from the political toolkit of the great powers, was shattered on the battlefields of Ukraine.

For the Republic of Moldova, this reality demands not only lucidity but also strategic courage. A small state, with limited resources, partially occupied territory, and structural vulnerabilities accumulated over decades of transition, cannot afford existential ambiguities. Constitutional neutrality has not prevented the maintenance of Russian troops in Transnistria. Geopolitical balancing has not eliminated economic and energy pressures. Identity ambivalence has not produced stability, but internal fracture.

The war in Ukraine is a direct warning: institutional fragility, energy dependencies, and identity confusion can be transformed into tools of geopolitical blackmail. In a space dominated by the competition of great powers, small states survive either through deep integration into solid alliances and security structures, or through consolidation by national unity. Isolation or the illusion of self-sufficiency are not viable options.

In this context, for the Republic of Moldova, the transformation from a small and vulnerable state into a medium-sized actor in the European space cannot be achieved exclusively through internal reforms, no matter how necessary they may be. Institutional consolidation, combating corruption, and modernizing the administration are mandatory conditions, but insufficient. The real paradigm shift involves overcoming the geopolitical condition of periphery and returning to the natural framework of its historical, cultural and linguistic identity.

The national reunification with Romania is not just a symbolic or sentimental project, but a strategic option for security and development. Within the Romanian state, a member of NATO and the European Union, the area between the Prut and Nistru would benefit from collective security guarantees, full economic integration, and institutional stability. Such a transformation would definitively close the gray zone of vulnerability constantly exploited by Moscow.

The history of recent years demonstrates that formal statehood is not synonymous with real security. Declarative sovereignty, devoid of effective defense capacity and solid strategic anchoring, can become a dangerous illusion. On the other hand, belonging to a consolidated political and military space offers not only protection, but also a perspective for sustainable development.

Reunification would mean overcoming the fragmentation of identity cultivated during the Soviet era and reaffirming the Romanian identity as the foundation of European modernization. It would mean transforming a vulnerable periphery into an integral part of a medium-sized state structure, but firmly anchored in the West. It would mean moving from the logic of survival to the logic of affirmation.

History has not ended. It is written through political decisions, collective will, and the ability to learn from the tragedies of the present. For the Republic of Moldova, the lesson of the war in Ukraine is clear: between vulnerable stagnation and irreversible integration, the choice can no longer be postponed. In an era of open geopolitical competition, the future belongs to those who dare to redefine their destiny in terms of national unity, strength and clear belonging to the democratic world.

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Expert Igor Botan explained how the aggression of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine has led countries such as Finland and Sweden to reassess their neutrality status. In his opinion, such countries, located on the border with Russia, cannot consider themselves safe as long as the Kremlin justifies aggression as a form of self-defense.

“The trigger for Finland and Sweden to reconsider their neutrality status was the change in circumstances in Europe, after Russia invaded Ukraine on the grounds that Ukraine posed a threat to Russia. Under such circumstances, neutral countries bordering Russia, such as Finland and Sweden, must react. Because at any moment, Russia may consider any country to be a threat to it. Russia believes it can afford such behavior, calculating that it has enough power to impose its will”, Igor Botan pointed out.

In the same context, historian Mihai Turcanu drew a parallel between the current rhetoric of Russian leaders and the justifications for aggression during the Nazi regime. In his opinion, the Kremlin regime needs external conflicts to legitimize its power in the context of global competitiveness.

“When Russia claims to be defending itself while attacking Ukraine, it exhibits classic behavior. Hitler also claimed to be defending himself when he attacked Poland and occupied Czechoslovakia. It was all a preventive self-defense action. Referring to Sweden and Finland and their renunciation of neutrality status. The problem is that the current regime in Russia is a nationalist, extremist one, which needs external actions to justify its existence, given that Russia has fallen far behind its main global competitors: China, EU, US. Therefore, Sweden and Finland have decided that they have no other way to protect themselves than joining NATO”, emphasized historian Mihai Turcanu.

The community expert at WatchDog, Andrei Curararu, highlighted that Switzerland’s neutrality is possible due to a solid and well-funded defense system. Curararu explained that, unlike Switzerland, Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon neutrality was a forced reaction to the geopolitical context.

“Why was it so easy to abandon neutrality in Sweden and Finland? Because, unlike Switzerland, it was not a self-imposed decision, but one forced by external circumstances. When the risks of aggression materialized, risks that we saw as real in Ukraine, public opinion changed immediately. Switzerland is the country that would meet NATO standards today, as it spends over 3% of its GDP on defense. In Switzerland, every man fit for military service has gone through military service, many of them keeping their issued weapon at home and can be mobilized at any moment if necessary”, stated expert Andrei Curararu.

The public debate “Neutrality in History and Politics” is the 51s edition of the debate series “The Impact of the Past on the Processes of Trust and Peace Consolidation”. The IPN Agency carries out this series with the support of the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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According to Igor Botan, the demographic structure of the Republic of Moldova determines a specific type of political culture, in which the rural population has a major influence on the political direction of the country. The predominant weight of the rural environment favors a parochial political culture, focused on trust in local leaders and the institution of the church.

“The political culture in the Republic of Moldova is mixed. The Republic of Moldova is the only country in Europe where the rural population exceeds the urban one. From this perspective, the rural, parochial political culture predominates over the urban, participatory political culture”, explained Igor Botan.

The expert emphasized that this increased trust in the church facilitates the direct involvement of the clergy in political processes. In the current geopolitical context, this becomes worrying, especially if we take into account the subordination of the Metropolis of Moldova to the Patriarchate of Moscow.

“For the parochial political culture, it is characteristic that people have the greatest trust in mayors and the church. Knowing this, we understand why the church gets involved in politics. 80% of the parishes in the Republic of Moldova are under the jurisdiction of the Metropolis of Moldova, which in turn is subordinate to the Patriarchate of Moscow. And Patriarch Kirill openly stated that Russia is waging a holy war in Ukraine, while bishops of the Russian church openly say that the church’s goal is to prepare Russian soldiers to win in Ukraine”, stated the permanent expert of the project.

The involvement of the church in politics is not a new phenomenon in the Republic of Moldova. Igor Botan recalled previous electoral campaigns, in which the church was actively present, its messages being amplified by the Shor network.

“All these narratives, through the Shor network, reach the Republic of Moldova as well. We have seen the involvement of high-ranking church figures in politics. This was discussed after the 2016 elections. We also have a note from the Constitutional Court in this regard. All these aspects must be taken into account to understand that we are in a difficult situation, and the church has become a political tool in the imperial games of the Russian Federation, and the Metropolis of Moldova is drawn, through the Shor network, into these political games”, said Igor Botan.

The public debate “Neutrality in History and Politics” is the 51 edition of the debate series “The Impact of the Past on the Processes of Trust and Peace Consolidation”. The IPN Agency carries out this series with the support of the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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According to Mihai Turcanu, the geopolitical reality of the Republic of Moldova clearly contradicts the constitutional provisions regarding neutrality. He pointed out that the presence of Russian troops in the Transnistrian region seriously compromises the neutrality status provided in Article 11 of the Constitution.

“It is not accurate to say that the Republic of Moldova is a neutral state. This starkly contradicts reality, considering that we have foreign military bases on our territory, and the presence of Russian occupation troops on the left bank of the Nistru”, explained historian Mihai Turcanu.

Turcanu also provided a historical perspective on the emergence of this principle in the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova. He explained that the idea of neutrality was introduced as a political compromise following the armed conflict on the Nistru in 1992, being a temporary solution adopted by the leaders of that time to avoid a deeper involvement in the Russian sphere of influence.

“The status of neutrality appeared in the Constitution as a result of the Russian Federation’s war of aggression against Moldova. It was the solution that our political decision-makers at the time were able to identify in order to chart an international course in the aftermath of the war on the Nistru”, said Doctor of History Mihai Turcanu.

After 2022, in the context of the war in Ukraine and the increasing security risks in the region, the Republic of Moldova began to pay more attention to strengthening its defense capabilities. In this regard, Mihai Turcanu noted the recent progress in equipping the national army and in the public perception of its role.

“After the year 2022, there is a shift in the attention given to strengthening the defense sector. There is progress in terms of equipping the army and acquiring military equipment. Currently, this is very important. It is essential for the army to be well-equipped, and for the people serving there to feel valued, and for society to have confidence in them”, stated Mihai Turcanu.

The public debate “Neutrality in History and Politics” is the 51 edition of the debate series “The Impact of the Past on the Processes of Trust and Peace Consolidation”. The IPN Agency carries out this series with the support of the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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According to Andrei Curararu, Article 11 of the Constitution, which provides for the permanent neutrality of the Republic of Moldova, does not reflect the geopolitical realities of the country. He draws attention to the fact that a significant part of the country’s territory is occupied by foreign troops, which contradicts the principle of neutrality.

“Article 11 of the Constitution is more declarative than applicable. Debates regarding the usefulness of the neutrality status have been present throughout our history. What is the purpose of neutrality when it is blatantly violated, with 11% of our territory being occupied by a foreign power, with foreign military presence? It is not a military presence that we have accepted. The Russian peacekeepers are coordinated with the Republic of Moldova. And the Russian Troops Operational Group, the so-called GOTR, is not coordinated with the Republic of Moldova”, explained the community expert from WatchDog, Andrei Curararu.

The expert believes that the Republic of Moldova has never had a clear approach to the concept of neutrality. He made a comparison with countries such as Austria or Switzerland, where neutrality is either active and well integrated into foreign policy, or supported by their own defense capabilities.

“The tragedy of the defense sector in the Republic of Moldova is that we have not understood how to apply this concept of neutrality. It was not an active neutrality, as is the case in Austria, nor a neutrality based on our own resources, which are obviously lacking in the Republic of Moldova, as in the case of Switzerland”, Andrei Curararu further stated.

Andrei Curararu criticized the positions of pro-Russian politicians in the Republic of Moldova, highlighting their incoherence and changes in discourse regarding neutrality. He reminded that recently, at the congress of the political bloc “Victoria”, which took place in Moscow, the fugitive leader Ilan Șor proposed the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by the Russian Federation.

“We see the flexibility of the positions of politicians affiliated with Russia. Last year they were talking about neutrality as a key element of foreign relations. Now we see that the same politicians are ready to give up this constitutional principle. The Collective Security Treaty Organization is a military arm of the Russian Federation that selectively intervenes in regional conflicts, as was the case in Kazakhstan in 2022”, said expert Andrei Curararu.

The public debate “Neutrality in History and Politics” is the 51 edition of the debate series “The Impact of the Past on the Processes of Trust and Peace Consolidation”. The IPN Agency carries out this series with the support of the German Hanns Seidel Foundation.

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“This is a question for the politicians and the Government of the Republic of Moldova. But neutrality does not exclude the need to be able to defend yourself and your country. I have also noticed that this government intends to invest more in defense, in new capabilities, and to start this defense cooperation with Denmark. I think this can be a good direction for Moldova”, the Danish official noted.

Troels Lund Poulsen said that he is fully aware of the situation in the Republic of Moldova and emphasized that, from the European perspective, supporting Moldova’s European path is a priority for him.

Denmark’s defense minister was asked about the frequent invocation of neutrality by pro-Russian parties and to what extent he believes the concept has been politicized. “First of all, I think it’s obvious that Russia has been active in spreading disinformation and other – I would say – serious things, with the aim of undermining the government here in the Republic of Moldova and the work of the parliament. So disinformation is indeed a reality. However, it is natural to have different opinions between parliamentary parties”, the official says.

Troels Lund Poulsen also said that he understands that elections are coming up in September and Moldovan citizens will have the opportunity to cast their vote. In his opinion, it is extremely important to ensure a secure environment for these parliamentary elections so that democracy has a fair chance.

“This is all the more essential in the current context in which various actors are trying to spread misinformation about what is happening in your country”, the Danish defense minister told IPN.

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The authorities clarify that the neutrality status of the Republic of Moldova is respected, being guaranteed by the Constitution and all official documents, including security and defense strategies. Cooperation with NATO and other international organizations takes place in full accordance with this status, in line with the Constitutional Court’s decision of 2017.

At the same time, the Ministry of Defense emphasizes that the neutrality of the Republic of Moldova cannot be internationally recognized as long as foreign troops, especially those of the Russian Federation, are illegally stationed on the country’s territory.

The ministry’s statements mention that, compared to other neutral states in Europe, Moldova currently has one of the smallest armies and the most reduced military budget in the region, which, according to authorities, does not hinder the conduct of external cooperation activities or internal modernization of military infrastructure.

At the same time, the authorities say that the purpose of disinformation is to instill fear in society, weaken confidence in state institutions, and create the perception of a vulnerable state. They urge citizens to get information only from official sources and not to be influenced by manipulations that affect the safety and stability of the state, reports IPN.

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