According to the Ministry of Finance, the payment of the respective allowances will involve expenses amounting to 802.4 million lei, provided for in the draft of the State Budget Law for the year 2026.

According to the National Confederation of Trade Unions, the proposed increase of 536 lei does not cover the cumulative inflation since the beginning of the year, which is 7.9%.

The prices of diapers, baby hygiene products, clothes for newborns, food for mother and baby, as well as medical care are continuously increasing, and the amount proposed by the authorities does not allow for covering the minimum necessary and violates the principle of an adequate standard of living, the unions warn.

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According to the forecasts in the report, the average annual inflation for the years 2025 and 2026 will be 7.7 and respectively 4.3%, being maintained this year and increased for the next year by 0.4 percentage points, IPN reports.

BNM specifies that the current forecast is affected by a series of risks and uncertainties: uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of service rate adjustments, the method of granting compensations for energy resources in the cold season, the vulnerability of prices for domestic fruits and vegetables to weather conditions, negative demographic trends, and labor force deficit.

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Compared to the same period of the previous year – April 2024, the average consumer prices have increased by 7.3%. In the case of services, the increase is 13.1%. In the last 12 months, food products have become more expensive by 8.5%, and goods by 2.2%.

However, compared to the previous month, prices decreased by 0.4% in August. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization emphasizes, in a comment, that the country is on a trajectory of price stabilization. According to the institution, this decrease is an encouraging signal that inflation is diminishing.

In the month of August, the annual inflation rate amounted to 7.3%.

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Thus, for a family with a mortgage loan of 1 million lei, contracted for 25 years, the interest rate will increase from 6.9% to 9.02%, which means an increase in the monthly rate from about 7,000 lei to 8,400 lei, the expert exemplified.

According to Stas Madan, the increase in interest rates is caused by the rising inflation in recent times, which has led the National Bank of Moldova to pursue a restrictive monetary policy, which in turn directly raises the cost of money in the economy.

The economist, however, draws attention to the fact that inflation is showing signs of decrease, and a reduction in mortgage interest rates is possible in the first half of next year.

The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) has published the new reference rates, indicating an increase in interest rates for new deposits in lei, for a term of 6-12 months, up to 5.82%, compared to 3.7% in November 2024. This evolution will lead to an increase in the interest rate for the First Home program, which is adjusted every six months, says Madan. The reference rate within the First Home program results from market conditions, meaning it is determined by the rates on deposit contracts, with terms from 6 to 12 months.

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BNM also mentions that, through the respective decision, it aims to anchor inflation expectations, to bring back and maintain inflation within the variation range of ±1.5 percentage points from the inflation target of 5% over the medium term.

“The BNM decision comes in a context of inflation tempering and the continuation of the effects of previously adopted restrictive measures. The National Bank anticipates a downward trend in inflation until the end of the current year, supported by a demand below potential, but also by a more stable outlook,” is stated in a press release.

According to the National Bank, inflation, until the end of the current year, will continue the downward trend, supported by the persistence of an aggregate demand below its potential level, which will continue to exert a disinflationary impact on price dynamics, and by the tempering of inflationary expectations. Under these conditions, there is a reasonable probability that, in the following periods, the National Bank will conclude the current restrictive cycle of monetary policy.

The annual inflation reached 7.9% in May 2025, a slight increase compared to April, exceeding the upper limit of the target range. The National Bank of Romania (BNM) points out that this development was particularly influenced by food prices, partially offset by the decrease in fuel prices and those regulated. Internationally, the World Bank has revised downwards its estimates of global economic growth due to trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.

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