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| Gunther Fehlinger | |
Moldova is governed by a pro-European President Maia Sandu since December 2020 and a pro-European Government, led by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița since July 2021, so one might be excused to think European policy makers would welcome the European ambitions of the small nation of 2.5 million squeezed between EU and NATO member Romania to the west, and Ukraine, aspiring to join EU and NATO, to the east.
Neutral Moldova clearly wants to join the EU and has formed the EU accession trio in Batumi, Georgia in July 2021 in the presence of EU Council President Charles Michel. In late September 2021, the new Government led by the new Prime Minister and the very experienced Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu visited Brussels to discuss how the positive welcome on Twitter by the European elite for the new pro-European Government can be translated into a concrete EU future for European Moldova.
Please keep in mind this is the third time Moldova is turning West and we are surprised, and after having lost Moldova twice to pro-Russian groups we are again paralyzed and have no concrete European future for Moldova to offer. Losing Moldova a third time in the 2020s, which polite adjective to give to such a result? Well, European Moldova is not lost, so why not win this time and long term?
Potential EU Candidate Status is blocked by pro-Russian appeasement lobby
Kosovo and Bosnia have the EU potential candidate status, including the crucial IPA funding for pre-accession, but Moldova is denied this status and funding and parked in the failed so-called Eastern Partnership. Sure, the DCFTA trade agreement is similar in content and regulations with EU accession, but the friends of Russia in Brussels, Paris and The Hague do not offer a perspective for membership for the ex-Soviet republic.
The ex-Soviet republics Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia lost to NATO and EU and inside the Eurozone seem enough of a loss for Russian pride and so Moldova, taken by Stalin’s tanks back into the Soviet Union in June 1940 as part of the Soviet-Nazi Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, is somehow sacrificed by the Western EU members for the sake of cheap and dirty Russian CO2 access. Good, we have lost Moldova so shall we give up?
Moldova, do it as Montenegro and adopt the Euro unilaterally
Gate crashing into the European institutional framework by adopting the Euro is not allowed, but a disunited EU would hardly find the unity to sanction pro-European Moldova for disobeying EU rules and rolling out the Euro with help of Estonia, Lithuania and Estonia now at start of the current mandate of President Sandu.
Sure, the EU could freeze the meager funding and support Moldova gets from the EU and could cancel the next EAP summit this December, where Moldova is forced to sit with Belarus, close to an Anschluss with Russia, and fellow member of the anti-NATO CSTO and EAEU Armenia.
Sure, the EU could tweet against Moldova stealing the European currency, but countries are free to choose which currency they offer their population. Kosovo and Montenegro use the Euro. El Salvador, Ecuador and Panama use the US Dollar, so why not? Most Moldovans live in the EU already, Moldova is fully integrated into the EU trading system by the DCFTA, most investment comes from the Eurozone, the future is the EU, so why not?
Romania should join the Eurozone together with Croatia and Bulgaria by 2024
Romania has been economically amazingly successful since joining the EU in 2007, fueled by a 16% flat tax, recently now 10% income tax and is booming, has low debt levels and is a global FDI magnet and now an automotive powerhouse in Eastern Europe.
Sadly, politically the socialist phase from 2012 to 2020 was a tragedy of corruption. The new pro-European government was supposed to lead Romania into the Euro zone together with Bulgaria and Croatia, but a mix of lack of courage and wisdom in Bucharest, Brussels and Frankfurt led to the unfortunate decision to postpone joining the Euro zone to 2028.
That a confused EU has accepted such a decision shows what is wrong in Brussels today. Postponing and delaying is always preferred to unification and so the EU is gradually losing authority and is not taken seriously by our opponents in Russia andChina and not even by our allies in Washington and London.
Romania would have added $290 billion GDP weight to the Eurozone and shown the EU works and can unite European economies in our common institutions. Talk of a global role for the Euro while postponing Romanian entry is hollow and not taken seriously anywhere. We need to do our homework first and unite Eastern Europe before we walk cocky around claiming a geostrategic role for the EU. So why does that matter for Moldova to gate crash into the EU by adopting the Euro?
Romania joins Eurozone in 2024 and piggybacks Moldova
Moldova having the same currency and joining the EU Customs Union is the logical next step after the DCFTA and would unite Moldova with Romania, economically, not politically, to be clear. Poor peripheral Moldova, economically fully integrated in the EU and Romanian economy, could reach to today’s Romanian levels of prosperity by the end of this decade and with that the case for EU membership would be easier to make later the decade.
The choice is clear: Euro in Moldova vs. the Transnistrian ruble
Russia has subsidized Transnistria since the end of the Soviet Union and there is no end in sight. This blocks progress to the EU and NATO and is a major burden for Moldova.
Adopting the Euro and setting Moldova on a new trajectory for prosperity while the Ruble will further decline and devalue is the best strategy for peaceful reintegration of Transnistria, first the people and then full political reintegration. Once the prosperity differential between European Euro-basedized Moldova and Ruble-based Transnistria becomes significant, people will leave Transnistria or the costs of keeping them will rise significantly to unsustainable levels, as was the case in Eastern Germany at the end of the 1980s.
This might take a decade but it will work the same way as in Eastern Germany so the Euro will be the tool for peaceful and voluntary reunification of Transnistria in European Moldova as the Euro will turn Moldova so successful and magnetic over time.
It’s time for the Euro, the game changer for peace, prosperity and unity for Moldova!
IPN publishes in the Op-Ed rubric opinion pieces submitted by authors not affiliated with our editorial board. The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of our editorial board.