Some political commentators think that Igor Dodon is almost a winner given his score in the first round of voting. Others consider Maia Sandu has real chances of winning the race for the presidency if she manages to mobilize the pro-European voters.
Contacted by IPN, political analyst Corneliu Ciurea said that the supporters of Dumitru Chubashenko and, possibly, the Communist sympathizers could vote for Igor Dodon. This could also attract a part of the votes of the Democrats if the Democratic Party is at odds with Maia Sandu. “So, he has some resources,” stated the analyst. According to him, given the score obtained in the first round of voting, Igor Dodon is practically a winner. “I don’t realize what factor can intervene to change the ratio of forces. Only a miracle can help Maia Sandu become Head of State.”
Maia Sandu could attract the votes of the supporters of the other candidates who competed in the first round, especially of Mihai Ghimpu and Iurie Leanca. The young people could be mobilized to bring her more votes. Maia Sandu can get an increase in her electoral score owing to additional mobilization in Chisinau, but it will be hard to do this as the voter turnout in the capital city was high compared with other electoral districts, stated Corneliu Ciurea.
Politologist Mihai Cernencu stated for IPN that the Socialist leader exemplarily mobilized his supporters. In the runoff, this could attract the votes of the candidate of “Our Party” Dumitru Chubashenko. Among the voters of Dodon could be the supporters of the Party of Communists that boycotted the first round of elections, and also the supporters of the Democratic Party that withdrew its candidate.
According to Mihai Cernencu, the joint candidate of the center-right opposition Maia Sandu could attract a part of the votes given for Mihai Ghimpu and Iurie Leanca, for whom not only party member voted. The young people, who took part in the presidential elections in a low number, are the main source from which Maia Sandu could extend her electoral base. Therefore, Maia Sandu must come up with a message to muster support from the young people. The situation of 2009 could repeat and the vote of the young people could be decisive. In the mayoral elections in Chisinau, Igor Dodon and Zinaida Grecheanyi enjoyed support in elections, but were beaten in the runoff vote.
Political commentator Ion Tabarta considers Maia Sandu has real chances of winning the office of President if she manages to mobilize the pro-European voters. To be successful, the voter turnout at internal level must be increased by 5%-10%. If the voter turnout is the same as in the first round, Igor Dodon will easily score a victory.
“We must not forget that Igor Dodon won almost 48% of the vote, which is nearly 50%. The situation would have been different if hehad gained 42%-43% of the ballot. Now he must keep his voters. This is probably the reason why he made the call to the political left of Moldova. For Maia Sandu, picking the votes of the right that voted for her in the first round of voting is not enough. She must motivate the passive voters who, for particular reasons, didn’t vote in elections, so that these vote for the pro-European candidate Maia Sandu in the runoff,” stated Ion Tabarta, adding that Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon can obtain an almost equal score in the runoff elections.
