After last week’s local elections, politicians, experts and voters spoke in unison about the need to urgently form a new coalition and a new Cabinet. The Communists underlined the necessity of voting in a technocratic Cabinet, while the Socialists suggested amending the Constitution so that the head of state is elected directly, by the people. Radio Free Europe, quoted by IPN, writes that after the lamentable experience of a minority Government that fell three months after its installation, the experts now anticipate three coalition forming scenarios, while the main call is for the politicians not to act like on other occasions when they delayed the negotiations until they lost the confidence of most of the voters.
The first variant is a coalition formed of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, which, according to political analyst Igor Volnitski, was indirectly suggested by the voters in the 2014 parliamentary elections and the recent local elections. “The leaders of the three parties will not have a choice and will yield each what they can because another coalition is simply not possible. The people’s vote showed that the pro-European course is supported and the leaders of the three parties would commit suicide if they neglected again this vote. There is yet the possibility, of 5-10%, that a compromise will not be reached owing to the frustrations and anger accumulated in time. In such a case, everything is possible – a technocratic government without clear political support, a minority government with insufficient coverage, a transition government or a national savior-government,” he stated.
Politologist Bogdan Tirdea, who entered Parliament on the Socialist ticket after the 2014 elections, shares such a view. “A PDM-PLDM-PL alliance, with the PCRM on constructive positions, is the most plausible variant. This variant would be supported by the European partners and backers. Such an alliance would meet the interests of these parties the best. Even if the PDM feels more conveniently in an alliance with the PCRM, the lack of money will push this party towards a coalition with the PL. Most probably, Ghimpu will give up his demands concerning the appointment of a foreigner as prosecutor general and possibly the claims over the Ministry of Transport, and an agreement will be reached. Now the goal of Vlad Plahotniuc (first deputy head of the PDM – e.n.) is to ‘crush’ Vlad Filat (chairman of the PLDM – e.n.) so that this yields up the ministries that were earlier controlled by the PL to Ghimpu (the Liberal leader). They could even yield up the customs or other institutions managing large financial flows. So, the pressure is now on Filat and this will inevitably lead to cleavages. A new political war may start in autumn,” he said.
Political analyst Anatol Taranu consider the post of Premier will cause most of the problems within the negotiations. “There are now no reserves for political maneuvers. Long-term negotiations would now mean putting the country in a very dangerous situation and the image of the pro-European leaders would worsen a lot. I think the designation of a candidate for premiership is the biggest problem. The distribution of control over particular miniseries is another problem. The leaders will make effort to identify a candidate who will be accepted by everyone. Gaburici (former Premier – e.n.) was an unsuccessful attempt. I think there are big chances for a pro-European coalition to be formed,” he said.
Political analyst Corneliu Ciuree considers the PL could now play the role of the opposition within a coalition. “A consensus will be most probably reached. The post of prosecutor will be held by a person from Moldova even if the PL insists on something else. This is the beginning of the negotiation process, when each side formulates maximum claims so as to make concessions later. The PL will make concessions, as the PLDM and PDM will do. These will yield by one-two ministries to the PL. The post of Premier will be occupied by a candidate fielded by the PLDM, while the Head of Parliament will most probably not be replaced,” he stated.
If the three pro-European parties do not manage again to come to terms, the next variant formulated by experts is the formation of an official alliance between the PLDM, PDM and PCRM.
