Veaceslav Ionita: The fourth migration wave from Moldova will aim at Romania

The new exodus of Moldovan workers that will follow after he three massive flows of Moldovans, which occurred during the past five years owing to the continuous economic crisis, will be directed towards Romania, the economic analyst Veaceslav Ionita says. According to the expert, after 1991 Moldova had several myths. One of them is that Moldova is an agrarian country with the best soil in Europe. It took some two-three years after the privatisation of 1996-1997 until the people realised they cannot earn their living from agriculture with only two hectares of land. To keep to the subsistence level, a family needs at least seven hectares. Moreover, the expert says, the town workers also got into difficulty at the end of the 90s. The Moldovan economy was bankrupt after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There were small industries in district centres, which yet depended on the state support. Legally, the government could not finance bankrupt enterprises, but it provided guarantees for obtaining foreign credits, which were cancelled by law in 1998. According to Ionita, the first migration wave happened in 2000-2001. The migrants were rural residents that understood that they will not be able to survive by cultivating the land only. Moldova had an economically active population of about 2.2 million people, 60% of which in villages. Therefore, there were about 1.4 million farmers, but this sector of the economy needed only at the most 600,000. The residents of district centres that also remained without future prospects began to migrate in practically the same period. The last flow was composed of employees of the budgetary sector that had been seriously affected by the financial crisis of 2001. The analyst considers that unlike the Romanian migrants, the Moldovan economic migrants headed for two geographic directions – towards East (Russia) and towards West (Spain, Italy, Portugal). The poorest and lowly qualified people migrated to the east. The intelligent people with a status at home emigrated to the west. Moscow is mainly the target of men, the analyst says. They work in the construction sector as day labourers or in shadowy activities. A separate category of people work in Russia as bus and trolleybus drivers as they are more competitive than the residents of Moscow in this area. A migrant bus driver in Russia gets 600 USD a month. This sum for a Moscow resident is very small as the rent for a three-room apartment in the outskirts of the city is 1 100 USD. The Moldovans that work in Russia spend maximum 100 USD: they stay by 10 persons in a room, eat wholesale food. There are poorly paid sectors where a resident of Russia would not accept to work. Women, in general, work in the east, in housekeeping and social assistance. Most of the migrant workers there are illegal migrants and persons that left with tourist visas for a months and did not return. Veaceslav Ionita says that in the past five years Romania had come closer to Europe than Moldova. Until they do not see with their own eyes that Romania is richer than Moldova, the Moldovans will not go to work over the Prut. But the difference will be visible in the next years and the next exodus of the Moldovans will head for Bucharest and other cities of Romania. There are about 300 000 – 400 000 Moldovans in villages that live below the subsistence level, have no one working abroad and will be glad to earn a salary of $600 in Bucharest. They will form the next migration wave.