Upbeat harvest forecasts

The harvest will be the best in a decade in Moldova this year and will surge to 1.2 million tonnes, assess analysts from the Viitorul Institute in their Monitorul Economic launched on July 29. The estimations have been made without taking into account the losses caused by the floods. However, they say agriculture remains very weakly developed, if to compare it with other European countries, Info-Prim Neo reports. “If the vegetal agriculture has recorded several positive changes, the animal breeding is a disaster,” Viorel Chivriga, an IDIS expert, said at the launch. The number of animals dropped this year and because of meat shortage, the prices jumped worriedly, while the measures taken by the Government are very weak, the economist specifies. An older destabilizing factor remains the precarious situation of the external trade with animal products. According to Chivriga, the country's agricultural policies are insignificant, the state subventions “take the shape of lobbying for someone,” and this “deprives farmers from motivation.” As a result, “we have a very small number of performing farmers,” he said. Speaking of the social area, “Monitorul Economic” writes the shortage of skilled labor is becoming one of the core problems of the Moldovan economy. Still many are employed in agriculture and households – sectors with low labor productivity. The jump in food prices and utilities charges depreciates the people's incomes, so that the economic growth becomes insignificant, the report points out. Economists expect the trade balance deficit to go past the psychological threshold of $3 billion, later in 2008. Chivriga finds that the imports have reached threatening quotas and they will be further stimulated by the developments on the hydrocarbon markets, by the increased consumption of imported products and by the over-appreciation of the national currency as to the US and European currencies. The expert forecasts a spectacular rise in the food and produce exports in the second half of 2008.