The armed crisis in Ukraine risks becoming chronic and the phenomenon of “Transnistrization” can appear in the country, which will be used by the Kremlin to exert pressure on Kiev, in the same way as in the case of Moldova’s Transnistrian region. Moscow will not now yet call on the Ukrainian separatists to stop destabilizing the situation. Thus, the phenomenon of “Transnistrization” in the neighboring country can only intensify, said participants in the debate “Moldovan-Ukrainian relations in new geopolitical and regional security conditions”, staged by IPN News Agency in partnership with Radio Moldova.
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Moldova Serhii Pyrozkov said that the crisis in his country derived from the fundamental identity problems faced by it. After the USSR fell apart, the Ukrainian people obtained independence without great effort and now they do not have the instinct of struggling for their independence. When Russia staged its military aggression, the people didn’t know how to react.
Head of the Center for Political Analysis and Consultancy “Politicon” Anatol Taranu believes that the crisis in Ukraine will not denigrate into a major armed conflict, and the term “Transnistrization” will be very topical for this country. This is the worst variant of the developments as this would create possibilities for exerting pressure on Kiev through the territories where there are frozen conflicts, as in Moldova. “The Transnistrian conflict is used to the maximum by the Kremlin to exert pressure on Moldova,” he stated.
He added that this pressure not always brings the results expected by Moscow, while the pressure exerted through the Transnistrian region didn’t make Moldova’s administration to renounce the European course. However, the Transnistrian conflict affects the country’s development. Ukraine faces the same situation and everything depends on the way in which Kiev decides to solve the crisis in the country.
Executive director of the Association for Participatory Democracy ADEPT Igor Botan is the first who formulated the term “Transnistrization” of Ukraine. He said that the Russian officials use contradictory arguments concerning the annexation of Crimea – either that they had to protect the people from radical protesters or that NATO wanted to obtain this territory. The expert believes that Russia aims to prevent the ex-Soviet states from coming closer to the EU and NATO and thus causes problems in such sates as Moldova and Ukraine.
Igor Botan noted that Moldova cannot hope for full integration into the European community owing to the Transnistrian conflict as the EU knows the example of Cyprus and does not want a similar state in its composition. The same is true about NATO.
The expert added that the worst danger is that the people will resign themselves, Crimea will remain annexed and the Ukrainian regions Donetsk and Lugansk will become frozen conflicts. Russia will play the role of peacekeeper, as in the Transnistrian region. “I was surprised to find out that I was wrong when I thought that Russia spends US$ 300-400 million for supporting Transnistria. Those from the left bank of the Nistru boasted that Russia offers them about US$1 billion annually. This will continue until Moldova does not ask to be accepted into a Eurasian union or a similar organization,” he stated.
The debate “Moldovan-Ukrainian relations in new geopolitical and regional security conditions” is the 31st of the series of debates “Development of political culture in public debates” that are organized by IPN in concert Radio Moldova and with the support of Germany’s Hanns Seidel Foundation.
