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Three scenarios Russia could test to regain control of Moldova


https://www.ipn.md/en/three-scenarios-russia-could-test-to-regain-control-of-moldova-7965_1110148.html

The Kremlin is pulling out all guns to regain control over Moldova. This is according to WatchDog.MD expert Andrei Curararu, who commented on Russia's false accusations that it is preparing a plan for military action in the Transnistrian region. In a commentary, the expert said that Russia could now test three operational scenarios, each designed to sabotage Moldova's stability and influence public perception, IPN reports.

Andrei Curararu said that this is an information war, and Moscow's strategy is destabilization by any means, using MGRES as the centerpiece in a campaign of manipulation and intimidation.

According to the first scenario, called the "false flag operation", Russia could fabricate an incident at MGRES, such as a simulated drone attack or orchestrated sabotage, in order to accuse Chisinau of aggression, notes Andrei Curararu.

MGRES, forced to switch to coal as a result of Gazprom's decision not to deliver gas by alternative routes, faces major risks of breakdown. Andrei Curararu says that in the second scenario, launched under the name "masking technical failures", the Kremlin is preparing a narrative of energy sabotage to divert attention from its own technical failures and to turn the tide against the Chisinau government.

The third scenario would radicalize the Transnistrian population. "Even if no further action would follow, by intensifying propaganda about "Moldovan threats", Russia fuels hostility towards Chisinau and blocks any dialog. It is a strategy that aims to divide Moldovan society and induce hatred of Transnistrians against the constitutional authorities", said Andrei Curararu.

The WatchDog.MD expert reiterated that each scenario aims to destabilize the country before the elections. "The Kremlin is betting on chaos, but for Moldova the only way is to maintain peace and expose these tactics through clear and transparent communication", the expert concluded.

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service has accused Chisinau of preparing a plan for a military operation to take control of the Transnistrian region. The information was denied by the Moldovan presidency and the Reintegration Policy Office, which reiterated their support for a peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. The Chisinau authorities are demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from the breakaway Transnistrian region and of the arsenal that has been there since Soviet times.