Think tank forecasts stable exchange rate in coming 6 months

The currency exchange rate in the first half of the next year will be relatively stable. The opinion has been uttered by Sergiu Gaibu, an expert with the IDIS Viitorul institute, Info- Prim Neo reports. The slow fluctuations will be mainly dictated by the oscillations of the US dollar-euro tango on foreign markets, the expert said on December 26 at a sitting at which a Synthesis of the year 2008 was launched. “Despite the fact that the remittances are expected to fall, coupled with currency reserves of $1.5 billion, they will allow the National Bank to maintain the stability of the exchange rate,” Sergiu Gaibu said. As the Moldovan leu hiked 22% as to the currency basket (euro, dollar, hrivna, Romanian leu, Russian ruble) and 17% to the US dollar, the state budget is going to miss some 1.4 billion lei, the expert says. Gaibu says that, although officially they talk about the liberalization of the financial-banking market, the real sector is suffocating because of a shortage of loans, as the companies' demand for credit is met in ration of only some 25%. The publication recommends two tools that may allow to overcome a possible budget crisis in Moldova: the slow depreciation of the national currency, and raising the budget deficit to 2% of the GDP. The planned deficit for 2009 is 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product.