There are reasons to believe that Transnistrian conflict will be solved, says Russian analyst

“There are reasons to believe that the Transnistrian dispute will be resolved,” Russian political thinker Alexei Vlasov said during a videoconference themed “Ways of Solving Conflicts in Transnistria and Karabakh”, which brought together political analysts from Chisinau, Moscow and Baku, Info-Prim Neo reports. The videoconference was organized by RIA Novosti news agency. According to Alexei Vlasov, for the Transnistrian conflict to be solved, the elites in Chisinau and Tiraspol should renounce the political and economic clan interests and take reconciliatory steps towards each others with the help of Russia Alexei Vlasov considers that only two unsolved problems remained in the post-Soviet area after the USSR was dissolved – in Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh. South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been already recognized by a number of states, the analyst said. He stressed that the conflicts in Ossetia and Abkhazia and those in Transnistria and Karabakh are rather different. The first two conflicts over the past 4-5 years were tackled by Russia and Georgia only, while the settlement of the other two conflicts has been negotiated by a number of participants. No plan or strategy proposed so far for solving these conflicts worked because a settlement is not possible if all the sides do not reach a consensus, Vlasov added The Russian thinker considers that Moldova and Azerbaijan will stick to the adopted multi-facet policy until a certain point in time. “I don’t think that Baku and Chisinau will manage to maintain this position if the confrontation between Washington and Moscow becomes more acute as the possibility of solving the conflicts will diminish considerably,” Vlasov said. The analyst thinks that the Kozak plan can serve as basis for solving the Transnistrian conflict. “Even if certain aspects are outdated, the basic principle about Transnistria’s status within Moldova (part of a federation – e.n.) will be taken into account in the negotiation process sooner or later,” Alexei Vlasov said. Mubariz Ahmedoglu, political analyst from Baku, also considers that Russia wants the Transnistrian conflict to be settled on the basis of the updated Kozak plan, fact that was confirmed by the Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov after the meeting of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Voronin. At the same time, Moldovan analyst Valeriu Gavriluta thinks that the Kozak plan will not be used as basis for solving the dispute. “No president or MP that consider themselves patriots will agree to let the Russian army stay on the territory of Moldova,” he stated. According to Gavriluta, the elites in Chisinau have been long ago ready for Moldova’s reintegration, but the elites in Tiraspol cannot be identified as a group. The political analyst considers that the talks in trilateral format (Chisinau, Tiraspol and Moscow) are important for solving the problem, but they are only part of the talks in the 5+2 format. He said that the regional talks between the sides will most probably turn into international talks. On September 8, in Vienna, the mediators and observers to the Transnistria conflict settlement talks agreed to resume the talks in the 5+2 format. An adviser to the special envoy of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office said that a date for the direct talks has not been fixed, but these could open in October.