At the Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit of November 29, 2013, Moldova will enter a new stage of relations with the European Union. What will it bring and how will it influence the life of the Moldovans from the country and from abroad? What will each of us gain and what should we do for this benefit to become possible? How will the new conditions affect Moldova’s relations with other countries? The IPN Agency aims to look for answers to these and other questions worrying society, together with you, within the series of articles “Association with the EU to everyone’s understanding”, starting with today.
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IPN analysis: The expectations of the Vilnius Summit are many and varied, as the interests of different social groups of the Moldovan society that is greatly fragmented. However, we can speak about two large categories of expectations: keeping or taking over the power in Moldova, and a liberalized visa regime with the EU obtained for the Moldovans as soon as possible. The first mega-category of expectations refers to the interests of the political class, while the second to the interests of society.
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Directly or indirectly, the whole Moldovan political class counts on the results of the Vilnius Summit, even if some hide this interest. In general, this mega-category can also be divided into two: expectations of the government and expectations of the opposition. No matter what the government and the opposition say as regards their care for the people and the national interest concerning the Summit, the main interest for some is to remain in power, while for others is to take over the power.
Government has interests and … the obligation to remain in power
Even if it may seem strange, the government does not have special expectations of the Vilnius Summit. For it, it is more important for the Eastern Partnership Summit to take place on the set date and for the agenda to include Moldova, not only because the Association Agreement and the Free Trade Agreement that is contained in the first are to be initialed, not yet to be signed, as in the case of Ukraine and Georgia. The results of the Summit are important because they will help the parties of the Pro-European Coalition to obtain, in about half a year, the signing of these documents, and a liberalized visa regime with the EU for Moldovan travelers as quickly as possible. In this respect, the Vilnius Summit counts as a first real step towards the assertion of the irreversibility of the country’s European development course. But, for this step to be followed by other steps, the Coalition must keep the power after the Vilnius Summit and after the parliamentary elections of the end of next year.
Thus, the main stake on which the Pro-European Coalition can count in Vilnius is the use of all the events related to this Summit to strengthen its positions and to ensure the perpetration of its power for at least one more four-year mandate. Otherwise, not only the initialing of the agreements this year and their possible signing next year will be in danger, but also Moldova’s integration into the European area of values in general. From this viewpoint, the political interest of the Pro-European Coalition to remain in power becomes simultaneously an obligation towards a certain part of society that supports Moldova’s European integration course. This obligation will count until a new political force appears and convinces the voters that it can do better what the current ruling parties started to do now
Parliamentary opposition shakes boat in the middle of the sea
On the other hand, there are many and rather influential forces that intend to prevent Moldova from following the course to European integration so that it joins the Eurasian Union. They include first of all the Communist Party, which is the main parliamentary opposition force, the Party of Socialists, and partially and indirectly the Liberal Party, which has several representatives in Parliament. At the moment, the parliamentary opposition cannot prevent, postpone or cancel Moldova’s participation in the Vilnius Summit by parliamentary ways as it does not have sufficient votes in this respect. Thus, it has only one accessible instrument – to destabilize the internal political situation in Moldova so that Europe avoids having such a partner in order to protect its own peace. That’s why the first two mentioned parties, which are directly or indirectly supported by national and foreign political players, started to mount massive, regular and multilateral protests. That’s why the parliamentary opposition began to disseminate the message that the current government should be removed and that early legislative elections should be held.
Surely, the current government has many sins for which it should be punished and even replaced. If there hadn’t been the Vilnius Summit and what would follow after it, the opposition would have respected the rules of the political struggle in a democratic society and would have prepared for the ordinary elections of November 2014, emphasizing and skillfully using the mistakes made by the parties of the Pro-European Coalition, which I repeat, are sufficient. But the stake for the parliamentary opposition is also great. In order to stop the European integration process and to maintain the theoretical chances at least for the other integration model, it has no other solution than to come to power, eventually by early elections held as soon as possible or as a result of the people’s revolt named the ‘velvet revolution’. After the Vilnius Summit and especially after the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, which will also have legal effects, Moldova’s European course will become irreversible. Surely, in the current conditions, drawing a parallel between November 29, 2013 and March 2, 1992 would be an exaggerated move, but we will make use of it for relevance. On March 2, 1992, forces hostile to Moldova started the armed conflict on the Nistru, one of the undeclared goals being to prevent it from entering the United Nations Organization that day.
Parliamentary opposition on expectative positions
The left-wing, right-wing and center parliamentary opposition is in a delicate situation. The extra-parliamentary parties that share the government’s European options avoid supporting it openly as they would help it strengthen its positions now and in the parliamentary elections of next year. Nobody wants to dig their own grave. Furthermore, there are the government’s mistakes that were so often and so harshly criticized by the extraparliamentary parties, especially the People’s Movement “Antimafie”, the National Liberal Party and the People’s Party. For the same reasons, the left-wing extraparliamentary parties do not hurry to support the Eurasian integration option. It is true that the left-wing, right-wing and center parliamentary parties do not stimulate a more active behavior of the parties from outside the Parliament, in support of a certain integration idea, out of ignorance, because they do not have sufficient communication capacities or for other reasons. Thus, before the Vilnius Summit and after it, we cannot have great hopes that there will appear a Moldovan equivalent of the Snagov Declaration that was several years ago signed by almost all the political forces and other relevant organizations from Romania, in support of the country’s European integration course.
Moldovans want to travel freely in Europe
The political parties to which we referred above represent different social groups with different views on the country’s development course. Polls show that half of the population is for joining the existent European Union, while half is for joining the future Customs Union. There is now a common viewpoint that unites almost all the Moldovans. Almost all of them want (or are not against) to travel freely in Europe. We can say that this is the great expectation of society of the Vilnius Summit. It is not an exaggerated expectation. Besides the initialing of the two agreements, which can be signed in about a year at the Vilnius Summit, Moldova is to obtain a positive reaction from the European Commission as regards the liberalization of the visa regime with the EU. A possible recommendation of the European Commission made to the European Parliament at the Vilnius Summit means a favorable decision taken before the middle of next April. It would be a very important and palpable benefit for the Moldovan citizens related to the European integration process.
I repeat, it is a benefit that the Moldovans can obtain in the near future. This future came nearer after the recent pressure exerted by Russia on Moldova and other countries of the Eastern Partnership. The EU’s reaction to the ban on the imports of Moldovan wine imposed by Russia is known. It showed increased solidarity with Moldova. It is also known that high-ranking officials in Brussels urge liberalizing the visa regime for Moldovans ‘here and now’, in response to the real or possible restrictions imposed by Russia on Moldovan migrants. The political forces that will obtain this benefit will have a great trump card in the political struggle for power in the next period, while the political forces that will eventually try to hamper Moldova from following its course to Europeans integration will have to deal first of all with the own people who will not want to give up travelling freely in Europe.
Valeriu Vasilică, IPN
