The possibility that the political situation will get unstable in 2009 is very high. Info-Prim Neo interview with Igor Botan, executive manager of the Association for Participatory Democracy ADEPT

[ - The year 2008 was a run-up to the elections. What marks has it left on the political picture of Moldova?] - A number of resounding events occurred in 2008, related to the preparations for the parliamentary elections of 2009. The Election Code was amended by introducing new barriers for political parties. Those barriers resulted from the electoral failures suffered by the ruling party in the last two years. I mean in particular the elections in Gagauzia and the local elections in 2007. So, in 2008, even after the elections in the Gagauz Autonomy, the PCRM decided to introduce these barriers for the elections. Another event was the fall of the Government, a premiere during the rule of the PCRM. It was later that the causes of the Tarlev cabinet's collapse came out. Among them was the fact that Vasile Tarlev did not agree with the policies promoted by the ruling party, especially with the industrialization plans, the liquidation of the Industry Ministry, of the Transportation Ministry. We also saw Tarlev opposing the close-down of the tractor factory. Another important factor was related to the post-disaster relief efforts, where the Government did OK, more or less. Other very important things were related to the relationship with the EU. On the one hand, the EU appreciated the progress Moldova made, but on the other hand, the list of underachievements remained unchanged, because political will is usually expected rather than administrative performance. You don't need special administrative or financial capacities to ensure the freedom of media or other fundamental freedoms. Noteworthy is the total amount that the Moldovan government will have to pay to the citizens for violating their rights, especially during the years of the Communist rule. There are also a series of events as the meetings President Vladimir Voronin had with Transnistria's leader Igor Smirnov, which yielded nothing. In fact, the Transnistrian conflict remained frozen, as the efforts made by the government had a practically null effect. [ - What positions do the political parties start the electoral race from? How many of them do you think will enter the race?] - Experience shows that about a half of the registered parties engage in elections. The number of parties which participated in the previous elections ranged from 3 to 17 parties, but that was before electoral blocs were forbidden. Now that they are banned, their number could increase. It is not yet known how many parties have complied with the new requirements of the law on political parties and applied to the Justice Ministry for confirmation. The conditions are not equal for all the parties since many do not have equal access to media. The ruling party enjoys wide coverage and the benefit is clear in its favor. At the same time, the other parties, which still have access to other radio or TV stations, are scattered and not motivated to join their efforts, despite the pressure put on them. That is why one of the biggest advantages of the ruling party is the fact that the opposition remains divided. [ - How will the recent amendments influence the organization of the poll and its results?] - Raising the electoral threshold to 6% evidently is favoring the big parties. There are no extremist parties in Moldova to be ousted from the electoral competition. So, the target are the small parties and this was said openly, including by the Parliament Speaker in an interview. He said the objective was to avoid a possible excessive fragmentation of Parliament after the elections. The goal is clear and I think the ruling party wants to benefit from a re-distribution of votes. The interdiction to allow the holders of dual citizenship into Parliament will have an impact only after the elections, since it will require one to renounce either the other citizenship or the seat in the parliament. It is difficult to say whether the modifications will have a positive or a negative impact, since we don't know who will win the race. Still it's a negative aspect since there were recommendations from international institutions that the leadership first took into consideration, but later neglected them. This proves that, for the sake of certain advantages, the ruling party can indulge in such practices. Now we cannot know what the impact of the legal modifications will be on the elections, because they even may recoil upon their authors, as happened in the 2001 elections. It may happen that the PCRM will lose potential allies. Certainly some parties will not get into Parliament. [ - What changes on the Moldovan political landscape can the 2009 elections bring?] - I think a number of parties will enter Parliament. The elections will change a number of political faces. New figures will emerge in the political life. The experience shows that 2/3 of MPs are replaced. I think the situation will be very complicated, a thing highlighted by the fact the parliamentarians decided to set the election day later. It means that, deliberately, the parliamentarians ignore the law on electing the president, which means that the term of President Voronin will be, most probably, extended by another two months, according to the Constitution, or at least by one month. And it means that the ruling party thinks that it will need more time to negotiate on a set of issues: appointing the Government, electing the parliament's leadership and the president of the country. It may happen that the outgoing president Voronin will appoint the next prime-minister immediately after the elections, meaning that the formation of the new cabinet could precede the election of the next head of state. The possibility that the political situation will get unstable in 2009 is very high, because it will be very difficult for the ruling party to win absolute majority. The factor amplifying the chances of the ruling party consists in the disunity of the opposition. But the way in which things will get arranged is uncertain and entails risks of political destabilization. [ - How relevant may the year 2009 be for the aspirations of modifying the Moldovan modern political system?] - Casting a glance at the CIS, Moldova's situation is not bad, but if we compare it to the EU countries, it's clear we are much behind and there are not big hopes we can catch up rapidly. Now we have a type of imitative democracy in Moldova, a show-off democracy, in which the political parties turn into political cartels little by little, as it happened in Europe long time ago. But, the difference is that they have political culture and the citizens can influence the political elite due to this political culture. The political culture in Moldova is underdeveloped and the parties taking power try to benefit from it and solve their personal problems, and not the country's problems.