Statement signed in Moscow will have serious repercussions for Transnistria conflict settlement process, independent analyst

The joint statement signed in Moscow by Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and the Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov will have serious repercussions for the process of settling the Transnistrian dispute even if it appears to have a positive connotation. The resolution of the dispute will be delayed for a rather long period of time, independent analyst Vlad Lupan stated for Info-Prim Neo. The political analyst says that three elements of the statement are more important. “First of all, the statement says that the parties are ready to continue the talks, meaning that the Moldovan authorities accepted and continue to accept Russia’s formula, which says that Transnistria has the same legal rights in the negating process as Moldova, which is a recognized state. This position of Russia reveals its attitude on the Transnistrian settlement,” Vlad Lupan said. The second element of this statement, which also seems to have a positive connotation but in reality hides underwater stones, is the return to the talks in the 5+2 format. “Though the sides agreed to return to this format, the statement was made in the 2+1 format accepted by President Voronin in Russia’s favor,” Vlad Lupan said. “In fact, the Russian Federation called the Moldovan and Transnistrian leaders to Moscow to reach certain agreements, which could be later imposed in the 5 +2 format. The meeting was held without the Western partners that, at the meeting in the 5 +2 format, will be presented with a fait accompli, i.e the political agreement of the sides laid down in the statement,” the analyst said. The third element is the transformation of the current peacekeeping forces into an operation under the aegis of the OSCE, which also has a positive connotation at first sight. “It is stated that the transformation will take place only after the Transnistrian conflict is definitively solved. But the definitive settlement is delayed by Russia, which repeatedly showed that it does not want to give up the Kozak Memorandum. So, we see that the Moldovan authorities accepted without conditions not to transform the peacekeeping forces in the near future,” Vlad Lupan said. The expert stressed that the peacekeeping forces are in fact Russian forces. “By agreeing to the presence of these troops until the conflict is politically solved, as Russia says in the Kozak Memorandum, Moldova indirectly accepted not to insist on the withdrawal of the Russian troops from its territory,” the analyst said. He also said that Russia insisted on a synchronization of the settlement with the withdrawal of its troops before the Istanbul Summit 1999. This proposal is again put forward, but now its content is craftier. Vlad Lupan is sure that Vladimir Voronin’s visit to Moscow had a political purpose. He said that during over six years, the ruling party made concessions to Russia. Instead, Russia offers the Communists the possibility of using the Russian TV channels in Moldova, Voronin being present on TV alongside one of the most popular politicians in Moldova – Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. According to the last Public Opinion Barometer, Dmitry Medvedev is the second most trusted political leader in Moldova after Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.