Shevciuk doesn't have the power to bring about reintegration, study

The process of the Transnistrian conflict process was re-energized with the replacement of the leader in Tiraspol in 2012. However, Shevchuk’s election should not be seen as dramatically increasing the chances for a settlement, at least not in the near future. The opinion was formulated by Nicu Popescu and Leonid Litra in a study titled “Transnistria: A Bottom-Up Solution”. According to the experts, In December 2011, Transnistrian politics underwent a serious shock. Igor Smirnov, the region’s autocratic leader who led the region to secession in the early 1990s, did not even make it into the second round of leadership elections. Tired of Smirnov’s corrupt rule, the local population voted overwhelmingly for Evgeny Shevchuk, a modern and pragmatic leader. Nicu Popescu and Leonid Litra stress that, although Shevchuk is popular, his support is predicated on his ability to fulfil his campaign promises to bring change to the region. Shevchuk’s main goal in his first year in power was to consolidate his authority. He moved quickly to appoint some of his few trusted people to key positions and ousted some of Smirnov’s most notorious loyalists. In the experts' opinion, his domestic power struggles mean that he is unlikely to undertake any grand steps towards conflict resolution. He was not elected to reintegrate the region into Moldova, nor does he have the power to bring about reintegration, especially since he is not willing to risk being portrayed by hard-liners as a sell-out to Moldova. If he is to maintain his authority, Shevchuk needs to quickly come up with some deliverables for the population. This, note Leonid Litra and Nicu Popescu, makes him open to cooperative endeavours that benefit the local population. In his first month in power, Shevchuk established a good personal working relationship with Prime Minister Vlad Filat, and succeeded in intensifying Transnistria’s engagement in confidence building. This explains the improvement in the dynamic at conflict-settlement talks in the 5+2 format. According to the experts, for all the positive developments in conflict settlement, there is concern that moving towards greater cooperation will be difficult, as Shevchuk’s room for manoeuvre is limited. Moldova, too, is unlikely to go out of its way to meet Transnistrian demands. The study “Transnistria: A Bottom-Up Solution” was published by IDIS Viitorul and the European Council on Foreign Relations, with the financial support of the Soros Foundation Moldova.