The new parliamentary elections that will take place in constituency No. 38 Hâncești could be won by an independent candidate who would gain slightly over 20% of the vote. Over 15% of the voters would pick the candidate of the Party of Socialists (PSRM) and over 10% the candidate of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). The candidate of the Union Political Movement would poll 10% of the vote, the candidate of the Democratic Party (PDM) slightly over 4%, while others would gain less than 3%, shows a poll conducted by Date Inteligente SRL (iData). This covered 100 people living in constituency No. 38.
In a news conference at IPN, iData executive director Mihai Bologan said the period and context in which the data are collected should be taken into account in the data interpretation process. When the poll was carried out, only candidates Olesei Stamate of the PAS, Mihai Druță of the Party “Platform Dignity and Truth” (PPPDA), Vlad Țurcanu of the National Unity Party and Dorin Chirtoacă of the Union Political Movement were likely to compete. However, more candidates appeared later. It became known about the candidacy of independent Grigore Cobzac when the data collection process was in full swing.
Within the research, 20 experts were asked to anticipate who could win the seat in Hâncești. 30% of the experts consider the victory will be scored by the Socialist candidate, 30% believe the Democratic candidate will emerge victorious, while 25% rate PAS candidate Olesea Stamate as a winner. Mihai Bologan said the experts closed the poll before Grigore Cobzac announced his candidacy. The data could thus look differently in the February survey.
“The appearance of Mister Cobzac can influence and will definitely influence the final score. The withdrawal of Vlad Țurcanu would probably not affect the result much. The participation or non-participation of the Union Movement’s candidate Dorin Chirtoacă is important as this could win a particular number of votes that would change the configuration,” stated Mihai Bologan.
The experts were also asked about the eventual snap parliamentary elections. 70% of them said it is less probable that these will take place in 2020, while 10% said it is highly improbable. 15% said there are good chances of having snap elections, while 5% are almost sure that these will be held. Half of the experts believe that if snap parliamentary elections are held, these will be won by the PSRM, while 35% mentioned the PAS. Asked who would lose, half of the experts said the PDM, while 30% mentioned the PPPDA.
Some 65% of the experts consider this year’s presidential elections will have runoffs. 10% believe the presidential elections will be won by the first round, while 25% said these could be won by the first round. If the runoffs involved incumbent President Igor Dodon and PAS leader Maia Sandu, 75% of the experts said the elections would be won by Igor Dodon. If Igor Dodon competed in the runoffs with the leader of the PPPDA Andrei Năstase, 90% of the experts said Igor Dodon would be the winner, while 10% said the winner would be Andrei Năstase.
