After the renewal of Vladimir Putin’s term in office, the main interest of Russia in Moldova will be to test the sustainability of the European agenda and the loyalty level of the pro-Russian forces to the Eurasian cause, political pundit Dionis Cenusa says in an analysis article for IPN Agency.
According to the politologist, Russia’s policy towards Moldova can change during the next six years only if the government is taken over by the pro-Russian forces that often pleaded for the combination of the European integration with a strategic dialogue with Russia.
In reality, this would result in the lessening and adjustment of the European integration as the entry into the Eurasian Union is impossible otherwise.
If the Socialists manage to win the parliamentary elections of December 2018, Russia will encourage them to extend the cooperation with the Eurasian Commission. The status of observer state in the Eurasian organization that could be eventually provided to Moldova would extend the cooperation framework established by the memorandum of cooperation signed by Igor Dodon in 2017.
Dionis Cenusa noted that an immediate and radical defection from the European course is risky in Moldova given the precedent of pro-European protests in Ukraine, known as the “Euromaidan”, which were mounted in 2013. The share of the pro-Russian forces in the future equations of the power will dictate the radicalness and swiftness of the revision of Moldova’s foreign policy.
The profound revision of the EU - Moldova Association Agreement is Russia’s minimum objective, while the country’s reorientation to the East is its maximum objective. The Armenian model can serve as a source of inspiration. This was described by the Russian side as “very positive
The profound revision of the EU - Moldova Association Agreement is Russia’s minimum objective, while the country’s reorientation to the East is its maximum objective. The Armenian model can serve as a source of inspiration. This was described by the Russian side as “very positive experience” (Munich Conference, February 17, 2018), which could solve the problems in the region where Russia does not accept the EU’s influence to be more powerful. In this case, the pro-Russian forces in Moldova will need a geopolitical referendum with a favorable result for the Eurasian course, without which the risk of mass protests by the supporters of the European integration is guaranteed.
Moldova will be able to diminish the impact of the Russian factor only if it fully implements the reform agenda and ensures the economic integration and energy interconnection with the EU. The restoration of Moldova’s credibility in Brussels will encourage the European integration and will have a demotivating character for Russia.
However, the delay in settling the Transnistrian conflict and the dependence in the energy sector will keep Moldova in check during the next few years, regardless of the geopolitical color of the government, concluded the expert.
