Russian price of Moldovan president. Info-Prim Neo analysis

Russia can contribute to the improvement of the political situation in Moldova by influencing the election of the head of state. This can be one of the major results of the visits to Moscow paid by the former head of state Vladimir Voronin and the candidate for presidency Marian Lupu last weekend. It is only the price that Moscow wants for this 'service' that counts in this situation. Russia can play an important role not only because it is a great force that has a great interest in this area and uses large resources to achieve its goals. Even if it can seem strange, its role has been prepared by both of the camps of Moldovan politicians and by the European Union and the United States, which, though they could not help overcome the political crisis in Moldova, created preconditions for a certain solution. It seems that while expecting the denouement, all the political players accepted Russia's role of arbitrator at this stage. We can presume that Marian Lupu's visit to Moscow was made with the, at least, tacit support of Europe and possibly the EU. Most probably, both of the Moldovan politicians went to Moscow after support. Voronin asked for support in not electing Lupu as head of state on behalf of the Alliance for European Integration (AEI) or for electing Lupu without the AEI. Marian Lupu can choose to run as president with or without the Alliance. What did Russia decide to do? It already showed that it approves of Lupu and his acceptance as participant in the CIS summit in Chisinau and his meeting with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, as if he already was President of Moldova, come to confirm this. Russia made its choice and Vladimir Voronin did not have the chance to obtain something from it against Lupu. Thus, Marian Lupu, who is also accepted by Western partners, will be the head of state. But Vladimir Voronin did not go to Moscow only to find out this news. He probably fought fiercely for obtaining support for Lupu's candidacy without the AEI. This means the creation of a center-left coalition in the Parliament of Moldova, between the Communists Party (PCRM) and the Democratic Party (PDM), and the removal of the present center-right government, including the Filat Cabinet, from power. Judging by its rigid position, the PCRM has continued to plot this removal and understands that only Marian Lupu and the Democratic MPs, or at least a part of them, can help it achieve this. After the early elections, the press, which is said to be supporting the PCRM, did not dare to openly attack Marian Lupu, though it knows to attack systematically, concertedly, massively and efficiency, and this is not accidental. It is probably not a coincidence that the president of honor of the PDM Dumitru Diacov started to openly speak about the divergences existing inside the government coalition, stressing yet that not the PDM will be the one to destroy the AEI, but giving to understand that the destruction of the AEI is possible. The coming days could bring more clarity over the Russian authorities' decision as regards the Voronin – Lupu duel and, by extrapolation, the duel between the center-left coalition and the center-right alliance. After agreed with the Moldovan envoys, the decision must be implemented immediately given that the Moldovan legislation and the economic situation do not allow time for delays. In order to remedy the situation, Russia must persuade Voronin to vote for Lupu as head of state representing the AEI or to convince Lupu to accept the center-left alliance with Voronin so as he could be elected as President. In the first case, it is important what Moscow can give Voronin or take from him, while in the second – what Moscow promised to Marian Lupu. Why did Russia decide to throw this 'lifebuoy' to Moldova? The reason that Moscow is concerned about the fact that the democratic forces would come to power in Moldova en masse after new early elections is rather implausible. Until now, it knew very well how to annihilate the democratic political forces in Moldova. It will help Moldova overcome the political crisis depending on its own goals in this region. And this is natural as a country cannot prejudice its interests, especially when one seeks help from it. Russia will consider who to chose - Lupu or Voronin – so as to have its interests better protected. During eight years, it had tested these interests with Voronin and has reasons for satisfaction and for dissatisfaction as well. Lupu repeatedly showed that he is close to Russia's interests, at least among the current senior officials, including by his statements that Moldova will not join NATO. Thus, Russia could bank on him to Voronin's detriment. But Moscow could also choose a third scenario: Lupu and Voronin. In this case, Vladimir Voronin will be the winner as he would hold absolute power in the country even if he occupied no official position, while Marian Lupu and the PDM will resume the earlier activities and will restore the previous image. This is the best outcome possible. But it can also happen that the fate of the PPCD leader Iurie Rosca, who formed a left-right alliance with Vladimir Voronin, will repeat.