Even if Russia has ideological discrepancies with the EU, it can overcome them easily when pragmatic economic interests are at stake, politologist Dionis Cenușa says in an analysis article for IPN Agency.
The Russian preferences for the Moldovan Association Agreement reveal the duplicity of the Russian policy. This way, the Russian authorities do not eliminate the commercial restrictions imposed on Moldovan producers starting with 2013 on the pretext of preventing the negative effects of the Agreement with the EU (re-exports). However, concomitantly with maintaining these restrictions, the exponents of Vladimir Putin’s regime express interest in the benefits of the same Agreement for the Russian business community, explained the expert.
According to him, the rise in exports to the EU (to over 65% of the total in 2017) and functioning of the Moldovan citizenship by investment mechanism that was introduced in 2018 are a powerful stimulus for the Russian business community.
The maintaining of the Western sanctions, both individual and by sectors, at high intensity affects the economic interests of the Russian oligarchic groups. Russia’s eligibility for sanctions derives from its involvement in the case of poisoning with chemicals on British territory (Skripal case), with the assistance of Russians secret services, evidence of Russia’s involvement in the presidential elections in the U.S., downing of the civil plane MH17 and involvement in the militarization of separatism in Donbass region.
The denial of responsibility and continuation of actions leads to the maintaining and generation of new sanctions that limit the privileges of the Russian economic elites that are essential for the survival of Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Therefore, the mechanisms offered by the current Moldovan conjuncture (cheap citizenship, favorable commercial regime with the EU, including for the Transnistrian region) cannot be neglected by some of the economic groups in Russia.
An additional encouragement, on the one hand, is the lack of a robust justice system exemplified by the invalidation of the municipal elections in June 2018 or the difficult trial, with delays of half a year) of the main suspect in the theft of the US$ 1 billion Ilan Shor. On the other hand, the simplification of the procedures for doing business, in particular for foreigners, also creates more openness.
This amalgam of factors did so that the Association Agreement became one of the reasons for introducing bans in a beneficial commercial opportunity for penetrating the European market, noted Dionis Cenușa.
He reminds that the President’s representative for the rights of Russian entrepreneurs Boris Titov underlined the interest in entering the EU market through Russian investments in Moldovan economy.
The multitude of Socialist seats of MP will also ease the possibility of more effectively promoting a possible immigration of Russian investors with whom President Dodon actively socialized during the first 100 days in office, anticipates the expert.
Thus, despite the noxious rhetoric as to the negative impact of the Association Agreement in 2010-2016, the Russian authorities approve of this document and President Dodon also adopted an approving attitude. Currently, this keeps his criticism of the export quotas that he intends to renegotiate with the EU. So, the discussions about the scrapping of the Agreement lost topicality not only in Chișinău, but in Moscow too., concluded the politologist.
