The tense situation in the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine poses a series of risks, including the creation of a new secessionist area, economic and social problems for the whole population of the peninsula. Hanna Shelest, Senior Researcher at the Odessa Branch of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, in an interview for IPN, enumerated the possible risks posed by this crisis.
The first risk mentioned by the Ukrainian expert is the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Another one is the transformation of Crimea into an unrecognized entity, like Abkhazia and Transnistria. Also, a humanitarian crisis can arise in Crimea, given that the region depends fully on the continental part of Ukraine.
An economic crisis can also start in Crimea, given that the tourism sector was fully disrupted, but this sector is the main source of income of the population. Another risk is the appearance of an ethnic conflict. It is known that the indigenous population of the region – the Tatars – is against the separation of Crimea.
Attempts can be made to destabilize the situation in other regions of Ukraine, first of all Harkov, Donetsk, Lugansk and Odessa. Certain strategic facilities situated outside Crimea can be appropriated. Such attempts were made in Herson region, when a group of 70 Russian soldiers were dispatched near Strelkovoe village of this region. Afterward, they were joined by helicopters and armored vehicles.
Hanna Shelest said the major risk for Ukraine is now the fact that no substantial reforms can be done in all the spheres, including aimed at fighting corruption and nepotism. Such a reformation chance was missed in 2004, after the Orange Revolutio. The country and the people may not have the third chance.
Ukraine is facing a regional crisis in the Crimean peninsular, which decided to declare its independence after the power in Kiev was ousted. The referendum on joining Russia, which is disputed by the Ukrainian authorities and most of the international players, was held amid massive military presence, including Russian. Hanna Shelest said Moldova is not protected from such a crisis either. She called on the Moldovan authorities to implement all kinds of scenarios so as to avoid the destabilization of the situation in the country.
