The reticence, hesitation or tolerance of particular deviations shown by the European institutions towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can condition unfavorable preconditions for particular important reforms or for the management of critical political situations that can destabilize state constructions, political pundit Dionis Cenușa wrote in an analysis article for IPN Agency.
The banking fraud in Moldova that was revealed in 2014, after the signing of the Association Agreement, is the most conclusive example. Only after the freezing of the direct budget support in 2015 and its reactivation in 2016, the EU became more precautious in relation to the Moldovan authorities.
So, a large-scale political crisis was needed for the European officials to assume a more expressive role in increasing the reform monitoring quality and precision, noted the expert.
Nevertheless, besides principledness, the European institutions need a sharp tactical feeling when applying the conditionality that, if it is invoked too late, can lose the expected effect.
A relevant example of this deficiency is the non-transparent modification of the electoral system in Moldova (2017), contrary to the principles assumed before the foreign partners, which wasn’t followed by the activation of political conditionality by the EU. Consequently, this omission was interpreted as an encouragement by the Moldovan government and later provoked the invalidation of the Chisinau mayoral elections, in 2018 already.
The precedents generated by the Moldovan authorities offer the European institutions useful lessons for recalibrating their approach not only towards Moldova, but also towards Georgia and Ukraine. It is risky for Brussels to be permissive when Bidzina Ivanișvili destroys the democratic institutions, even if he does this in a lighter form than Vladimir Plahotniuc. It is also dangerous for the EU to be too slow or hesitant in firmly protecting the pro-reform and anti-corruption activists in Ukraine, while being very receptive to the calls of Moldovan civil society, concluded the politologist.
