Even if Moldova’s economy grew by 4.8% in the first quarter of this year, most of the macroeconomic indicators worsened in the second quarter and this shows that the national socioeconomic sector is vulnerable, says the publication of the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER) “Moldovan Economic Trends”, which was presented in Chisinau on October 27.
NIER director Alexandru Stratan said the macroeconomic situation is tense because of the frauds committed at the three banks and because the national currency depreciated significantly against the dollar and euro. Also, the national foreign exchange reserves fell by over one third, the development partners stopped providing financial assistance, while the remittances decreased by 25% (US$400 million).
In such conditions, the NIER experts forecast that the GDP in 2015 will fall by 2%. The global agricultural production will decline by about 10% compared with last year, the industrial production by 2%, exports by 15%, while imports by 25%. The internal trade and services provided for the population will shrink by 7% and 5% respectively. A rapid economic recovery next year is a nice, but too optimistic scenario.
Deputy Minister of Economy Octavian Calmac said the Ministry anticipates an economic growth of 1.5% for next year. “Moldova’s economy, even if it is an open one and the problems faced by the trade partners affect it, showed that it can work miracles. We hope that in 2016 the economic growth will be greater if there is political stability in the country,” he stated.
Recently, the World Bank presented its updated economic growth forecast for Moldova for this year and next year. Thus, the WB expects that this year the GDP will diminish by 2%, while in 2016 will grow by 05%.
