In the current conditions, no serious reform will be successful if it does not correspond to the strategic calculations of the oligarchic groups, politologist Dionis Cenusa said in an analysis article for IPN Agency.
According to the author, any incorrect move can cause the collapse of the systems that are maintained artificially, despite the public legitimacy that is dangerously insignificant.
While the given countries cover a difficult European integration path, the oligarchic groups are trying to gradually adjust their behavior according to the rules promoted by the EU, but not to the detriment of the own interests.
For this reason and because of the limited resources (Moldova’s case), the given oligarchs have pro-European views and oppose the return of the pro-Russian forces.
Dionis Cenusa noted there are different reasons that dictate a loyal attitude to the EU among the oligarchs in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia.
First of all, the possessions of the oligarchs are situated in the West and developing positive relations with the EU is the safest method of having access to these.
Another motivation of the oligarchs resides in the attractiveness of the European funds from which obscure interests in Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries already benefited. Without a functional dialogue with Brussels, no assistance and, respectively, eventual sources of benefits will cross the European borders.
Last but not least, the European affiliation of oligarchs extends their political life and increases their electoral chances.
The political pundit is convinced that the European integration and related reforms can play a very important role in the de-oligarchization of the given countries, but without success if the “checks and balances” system is not restored and made to work.
The probability that the given oligarchs will stop interfering in politics is low as this ensures their immunity and, respectively, their impunity. Therefore, the foreign partners, on the one hand, and the non-state pro-democracy players, on the other hand, will have the difficult task of gradually dissolving the oligarchic systems that seriously undermine the democratic institutions, concluded Dionis Cenusa.
