Experts at the Institute of Legal and Political Research of the Moldovan Academy of Sciences think that the depreciation of the ruble didn't lead to a deep financial crisis in Russia, but it still fueled panic and uncertainty because of the fluctuations of the exchange rate. As such, Moldovan immigrants in Russia are affected as well, given that they invested their hopes in the chance to improve their standard of living and that of their relatives at home, IPN learned from a commentary of the Institute.
According to official stats, 62.6% of all the remittances that enter Moldova come from Russia. The fall of the ruble is bound to reduce the volume of remittances from Russia compared to the first 10 months of 2014 and, subsequently, have a negative impact on the well-being of many Moldovans. The volume of savings, as Moldovans usually save money in dollars or, less frequently, in euros and Moldovan lei, will decrease proportionally with the depreciation of the ruble.
Moldovan immigrants in Russia don't form a united group, well-organized in associations, and the depreciation of the ruble is more likely to affect those settled in Moscow or Sankt-Petersburg.
Currently, the effects of the ruble decline are still unfelt in Moldova as the workforce hasn't started to return and there is little pressure on the politicians. A massive return of immigrants is likely if Russia is stricken by a financial crisis. One of the main negative social effects of the ruble depreciation is that it will mostly affect the unqualified migrants who work in areas sensitive to financial fluctuations, such as constructions or services. Additionally, the official rhetoric and the actions of the Russian authorities may fuel anti-immigrant feelings and this may lead to the repatriation of migrants.
ASM researchers think that if migrants start to return, there will be three main categories – those who will find a job in Moldova, those will look for other countries to immigrate, and those who will join the ranks of the unemployed, but won't cause political trouble because of their lack of organization. The problems caused by the latter group will be more of a social and economic nature. Overall, it's safe to predict that the standard of living will drop significantly for a segment of the population, given the decreased volume of remittances and the lower wages/social aid.
From a political viewpoint, the fall of the ruble won't influence the negotiations regarding the formation of the parliamentary majority. It's unlikely that the ruble decline will stir anti-Russian feelings, but it will serve as an example for the forces against integration in the Customs Union to point out the inviability of this project and as an argument in favor of European integration.
The researchers think that although the social, economic and political effects of the ruble depreciation are minor at the moment, the Moldovan authorities should prepare in advance for effects of the economic recession and financial crisis that might strike Russia in 2015.
