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| Veaceslav Craciun | |
Unprecedented quietness is witnessed this month not only in national politics, but also in Gagauzia. After the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia (APG-Y) moved the date of the Bashkan elections to June 30, the political life in the region passed from the usual conflicts and confrontations of the aspirants for power to the format of actions behind the scenes. However, this unreal quietness will not last long as the official struggle for the highest post in the Autonomous Territorial Unit starts at the end of April. By that moment, the denouement of the intrigue concerning the new power in the country and how a victorious scenario can influence the Gagauzia commitments will probably become known.
Conflict with false targets
As it was anticipated , Bashkan (Governor) Irina Vlah refused to promulgate the amendments to the local Election Code adopted by the People’s Assembly on March 18, by which the minimum voter turnout at the Bashkan elections was raised from 33% to 50% and the voter rolls compiled by the local administration were replaced by the list of the national register for being used in elections. In her official letter to the Speaker of the APG-Y, the Bashkan argued only that the deputies adopted the bill in breach of the procedural rules. In particular, the deputies didn’t obtain appraisals from the subjects that can formulate legislative proposals, didn’t stage public debates and ignored other provisions of the regulations of the APG-Y.
“Even without referring to the content, I send back to you the Law of ATU Gagauz-Yeri concerning the amendment and supplementing of the Election Code of March 18 as being adopted by violating the procedures set down by law, which cannot be already corrected if it is subject to a new examination,” says the Bashkan’s letter.
The APG-Y would need two third of the votes of the elected deputies to overcome the given veto. Irina Vlah’s opponents cannot secure so many votes, but even if they can this will have no practical sense. No matter how the deputies vote, the Central Election Commission of Gagauzia will be unable to obtain the data from the national register as it is not a personal data operator. A number of experts noted this and the president of Moldova’s CEC Alina Rusu last week also confirmed this. She said that to transmit the data from the register to the Election Commission of Gagauzia, the Election Code of Moldova needs to be modified.
As to the voter turnout, the limit of 50% will be applied without the decision of the APG-Y as this is stipulated in the regulations of Gagauzia, which are legally superior to the local Election Code. The transfer of the election date from May 19 to June 30 is for now the only result of the APG-Y.
It should be noted that the deputies didn’t give up the idea of amending the Election Code. They even decided to form, for the purpose, a conciliation commission that will include members of the Executive Committee of Gagauzia. However, in the depicted circumstances, it is not very clear what the mission of the commission will be. It is as unclear why this conflict around the attempt to amend the legislation right before the election campaign appeared. The situation could yet change closer to April 30, when the registration of candidates for the post of Bashkan starts.
“Overtime” before elections
The transfer of the election date could have been the main goal of the opponents of Vlah. In the “overtime” until the start of the election campaign, they could try to use the possibilities of their partners from Chisinau, in the person of the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), against the Governor. The govern variant is also examined in the circles close to the Bashkan. In particular, first deputy Bashkan Vadim Ceban does not rule out the possibility that Vlah could be soon subject to prosecution or to another pressure with the aim of preventing her from running in elections.
The replacement of the administration of the CEC of Gagauz-Yeri could be another step that the APG-Y can take before the elections. According to municipal councilor of Comrat, ex-MP Piotr Vlah, this could happen at one of the next meetings of the People’s Assembly. The former MP made reference to own sources close to the rival of the current Bashkan - Nicolai Dudoglo, the leader of the organization “New Gagauzia” that is close to the PDM.
For her part, Irina Vlah does not intend to concede the power. Her supporters staged in the region an event in support of the Bashkan. The inhabitants were invited to sign and confirm that they will vote the current Governor of the region on June 30. A series of deputies classed the given actions as illegal propaganda and complained to the CEC of Gagauzia. Some of the media outlets in the region also described the collection of signatures as violation of the secrecy of the ballot, which is against the given constitutional right of the people.
Scenarios of Igor Dodon and bets of the Bashkan
In one of his interviews, President Igor Dodon formulated four possible scenarios concerning the developments in Parliament, saying the snap elections are the most probable scenario. Irina Vlah , assessing all the prospects of the formation of the new power in the country from the post of Bashkan, will definitely try to place the safest bet and will request the informal leader of the Socialists to take a decision that would facilitate her reelection for another term.
The snap elections would be an ideal solution for the Governor of Gagauzia, on condition that these forces in Chisinau, which do not imagine her as Bashkan anymore, lose the held positons as a result of the campaign. The prospect that one more round of elections will not significantly change the ratio of forces between the PSRM and PDM is for now the most possible one. This would suit the opponents of the Bashkan who plead for her removal from power.
The scenario of alliances between parties also opens up possibilities to Irina Vlah as regards solutions to her own political tasks. The Socialists should take sides with their Gagauz ally given the political debt of February 24, when they won more than 10% of the votes of their supporters on the territory of the ATU with the assistance of the Bashkan. The future result of the Party of Socialists in the parliamentary elections will greatly depend on the position of the Bashkan in Gagauzia.
IPN publishes in the Op-Ed rubric opinion pieces submitted by authors not affiliated with our editorial board. The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of our editorial board.