IPN analysis: The Moldovan Parliament’s statement on the current state of the Transnistrian conflict settlement process, adopted as a result of two-day debates held behind closed doors, contains many elements that it had to contain and avoided certain aspects that would have caused an explosion with serious consequences or would have stimulated the causing of the explosion by other forces. The statement was voted by consensus, by the government and the opposition, with small exceptions, as the matters of strategic importance for society and the country should be addressed.
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The sappers have a golden rule: a mistake is fatal for those that commit it. The contemporary media space, which is full with news about all kinds of military conflicts, cataclysms, terrorist acts, acts of violence, murders and suicides, very seldom contains information about the death of a combat engineer or a group of such engineers in the line of duty. Maybe the work of sappers is extremely secretized or maybe they indeed manage to obey the golden rule and this means, in principle, that it can be obeyed. Only sufficient professionalism and responsibility are needed.
Professionalism and responsibility are also needed in the political sphere. Maybe even more than in the case of combat engineers because the effects of the mistakes made by the politicians are, as a rule, much greater than of those made by the sappers.
The politicians often behave not like the sappers. Probably because they are able to find shelter before causing certain expositions with social and political effects. Or, maybe, because they lack professionalism and responsibility. For example, the Moldovan political class had an absolutely ‘non-sapper-like’ behaviour during the long and profound political crisis that seems to have ended recently, but which was close to changing the country’s European integration course.
Present and absent emphases
At the end of last week, most of the Moldovan politicians worked in a ‘sapper-like’ regime when they tackled the tense situation in the Transnistrian region because the document that was adopted as a result of the two-day debates held behind closed doors contains many elements that it had to contain and avoided certain aspects that would have caused an explosion with serious consequences or would have stimulated the causing of the explosion by other forces. The statement was voted by consensus, by the government and the opposition, with small exceptions, as the matters of strategic importance for society and the country should be addressed.
The final text of the statement represents a balanced political-diplomatic document intended mainly for consumption abroad than at home. This is an appropriate move given that the roots of the conflict and the chances of settling it are related mainly to the behaviour of the great international players and the international political conjuncture. Moreover, Moldova’s and the Moldovans’ historical chance of overcoming the permanent state of transition ‘from nowhere to nowhere’ and of oscillation between a series of coordinates and values depends a lot on these players and the international conjuncture. The Transnistrian conflict that has been frozen for so many years is a motive, a component part and an expression of these oscillations. That’s why it is very dangerous to tackle it without being sure of its beneficial final effect on the country’s European integration course.
The politicians who say that the escalation of the tensions in the Transnistrian region by forces from inside and outside is aimed at compromising Moldova’s European course are right. In this context, it was asked to reedit a special note about how Russia fulfils its role of mediator and guarantor in the Transnistrian conflict settlement process and its international obligation to pull out its troops and munitions from Moldova’s territory. But this would have inevitably led to the straining of the Moldovan-Russian relations and, respectively, to the stagnation of the negotiations in the 5+2 format, with all the predictable consequences. Such an atmosphere would have worsened even more the situation in the Transnistrian region, with or without the escalation of things up to a new armed conflict. The political ‘sappers’ cannot afford such gestures. The case of Georgia reveals a possible development of the situation in Moldova.
Before the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, Georgia, not Moldova, was the ‘success story’ of the Eastern Partnership for the EU. Furthermore, Georgia was the ‘success story’ of the NATO and was already a rather real candidate for entering NATO. But it is no more and it’s not known if it will be again. Neither the EU nor NATO could protect it because Georgia wasn’t yet a member of the EU and NATO. The ‘success story’ is now Moldova and it does not have the right to make the same mistake. Moldova needs professional and responsible ‘sappers’ so as to achieve one of its two great strategic goals – to become part of the EU. The second goal – to reunify the county – cannot be achieved without the achievement of the first.
Secessionist provocations with cyclic character
Yes, those who opposed the adoption of the statement in the form in which it was voted are right when they say that the provocations connected with the Transnistrian conflict will continue. But this does not mean that a more bellicose and non-diplomatic statement would have guaranteed a halt in the provocations. It would have had rather the opposite effect. The ‘non-sapper’ politicians should realize that the provocations launched by Transnistria, with or without Moscow’s consent, are cyclic in character almost regardless of what the official Chisinau does to resolve the dispute. Each stage of improving the relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol is obligatorily followed by a stage of crisis and serious provocations. The periodic improvement of the relations is ensured by the subjective-political character of the conflict and the objective, natural needs of communication and cooperation of the people living on the two banks of the Nistru River. The regular worsening of the situation is dictated by the secessionist essence of the Transnistrian regime, with or without the help of Moscow, or, how the diplomats prefer to say, of some circles from Russia. The Transnistrian regime cannot and will not be allowed to improve the relations with Chisinau on a permanent basis as it will thus have to renounce its secessionist essence. “If we eliminate all the problems related to the conflict, we, the promoters of the independent Transnistria, will have to disappear,” they probably say from time to time. Or, they are told that, according to the scenario that was tested for several times, the ‘separation takes place by launching provocations’. The current provocations appeared in the wake of the serious political crisis experienced by the official Chisinau and intensified when it was overcome and chances reappeared to continue the European integration process, with a stage to be completed this autumn and another one next autumn.
Thus, the European integration process and the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict are two parts of the same medal or two national causes that can be achieved only together. At this historical stage, only the idea of European integration is able to achieve the country’s modernization by ensuring high living standards for the people as this will increase its attractiveness for those living in Transnistria. Both those who want these goals to be achieved and those who are against it realize this. The first, for sure, do not have the right to mistake.
Valeriu Vasilică, IPN
