The most recent poll carried out by the polling company Imas estimated the February 24 election outcome with the smallest margin of sampling error compared with other sociological companies. The survey by Imas is the only one that correctly anticipated the order of parties in the rankings and the fact that the Shor Party will pass the election threshold, Imas director Doru Petrutsi stated in a news conference at IPN.
He said some of the media outlets disseminate reports that make incorrect comparisons between the sociological surveys and the picture after the elections. It is not right to compare the poll results with the number of seats won by each party as the national surveys investigated the people’s voting intentions under the proportional representation system, not under the voting system in single-mandate constituencies. It is also incorrect to compare the results of the net voting intentions with the results obtained on party lists. Besides those who state their voting intentions as part of opinion polls, each survey presents the number of undecided voters. These should also be taken into account when comparing the poll estimates and the results based on the proportional representation system.
According to him, the correct comparison that should be made is that between the results of the net voting intentions, plus a particular number of undecided voters allocated for each party, and the results achieved by parties based on the proportional representation system according to the votes cast at the national level. The published opinion polls covered only the electors who voted in Moldova, not yet those from the diaspora.
“This way, the poll conducted by Imas showed the Party of Socialists would gain 33.7% of the vote. The party scored 32.4% on Moldova’s territory. In the case of the Democratic Party, the company estimated this would score 25.2%, while its result at the national level was 24.7%. 21.8% was anticipated for the bloc ACUM and the bloc won 24.3% of the ballot on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. The Imas poll was also the only one that forecast the Shor Party would pass the election threshold, presenting last week 7.5% for the Shor Party and estimating the net voting intentions together with the undecided ones at 9.7%. The Shor Party on Moldova’s territory scored 8.7%,” noted Doru Petrutsi.
According to him, all the other polls overestimated the PSRM’s rating and underestimated the ratings of the PDM and the Shor Party. Except for the survey carried out by the Association of Sociologists and Demographers of Moldova, all the other polls had estimates close to the result obtained by the electoral bloc ACUM.
Doru Petrutsi also said he listened calmly to what they recently said about the Imas polls of the past few years. The results of the company’s most recent poll is a response given to the analysts paid to grossly denigrate the company’s work.
