Political analysts do not share Moldovan authorities’ optimism about rapid settlement of Transnistrian conflict. Info-Prim Neo analysis

Political analysts, participants in the international conference “Settlement of the Transnistrian Conflict in the Context of Moldova’s Europeanization” taking place in Chisinau between March 26 and 27, do not believe in a quick resolution of the Transnistrian dispute despite the optimism expressed by the Moldovan authorities. [Analyst Vladimir Socor, senior researcher at Jamestown Foundation in Washington] says that a quick settlement of the conflict in 2008 or 2009 is not possible, at least, in Moldova’s favor. The analyst considers yet that a rapid settlement is anytime possible if Moldova accepts a disadvantageous solution. Instead, a fair resolution, in Moldova’s and Europe’s interest, is not possible because there are no preconditions for solving the dispute this year and will be none in 2009. According to the expert, the US and the EU and not Russia are the major players in the settlement process. “The Russian Federation does not have influence on the right bank of the Nistru. In fact, Russia has no influence on the left bank either, only on Tiraspol partially. The West has influence on the right bank and gains more and more influence on the left bank through economic instruments,” the analyst said. Vladimir Socor considers that Moldova will not accept the conditions imposed by Moscow for solving the dispute as these could lead to the creation of a non-functional Moldovan state. The expert denies the fact that the situation in Kosovo could set a precedent for Transnistria. Never and nowhere in the world, has a conflict been solved on the basis of precedents. “This is only a propagandistic myth,” says the analyst. At the same time, the expert does not put much hope in the NATO Summit that will take place in Bucharest. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization does not engage in the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict at all, he argues. Socor considers that President Vladimir Voronin will participate in the summit to seek support in recognizing Moldova’s neutrality from world leaders at unofficial meetings. He does not rule out the possibility that the president could make such a request in his speech too. [Radu Vrabie, program coordinator at the Foreign Policy Association], has told Info-Prim Neo that no major changes as regards the settlement of the Transnistrian dispute will occur in 2008 and 2009 because there are no preconditions for this. The new Russian president will not modify much the foreign policy, the United States are engaged in the Iraq war, while the EU cannot pay a lot of attention to this conflict yet. The analyst says that the latest steps aimed at solving the conflict taken by the Moldovan authorities show that Moldova’s hopes of solving the dispute are connected with Russia. But Russia has not made it clear yet that it wants to solve this conflict. Russia has time and waits for Moldova to concede. But President Vladimir Voronin does not have much time and tries to settle the dispute while he is in office, until 2009. Therefore, he makes more and more concessions, Radu Vrabie says. According to [Oazu Nantoi, program director at the Institute for Public Policy], the solution to the conflict is in Chisinau. The expert stresses that the settlement depends mainly on the improvement of the quality of democracy in Moldova and on the positive programs offered to the population from the left bank of the Nistru. If a solution acceptable to Chisinau is identified, it will not be viable. The present circumstances show that Russia is not interested in a stable and strong Moldova, the expert says. The analyst also considers that the prospects of solving the conflict are closely connected with the results of the 2009 elections. Oazu Nantoi says the position that Russia has had since 1992 is incompatible with Moldova’s sovereignty and independence, reason for which the settlement process is only an imitation and a waste of time. In an interview with a Muscovite publication earlier, Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin expressed his optimism that the Transnistrian conflict will be solved soon on the basis of the law on the basic principles of Transnistria’s status, after Moldova issues a new, internationally-guaranteed declaration of neutrality. That optimism was shared by the Deputy Minister of Reintegration Ion Stavila at the conference “Settlement of the Transnistrian Conflict in the Context of Moldova’s Europeanization” on Wednesday, February 26.