Plus-minus 2.5 reasons for electing Zinaida Greceanyi as head of state

[Info-Prim Neo analysis] Currently, there are 2.5 reasons for which Zinaida Greceanyi can be elected President of Moldova and as serious 2.5 reasons for which she cannot be elected. The title derives from this assumption. First of all, the reasons why she cannot be elected. [The first reason against] There are yet suspicions that Zinaida Greceanyi, as a member of the ‘Dodon group’, may be a Trojan horse infiltrated into the Alliance for European Integration (AEI) by the Voronin – Tkachuk group of the Communist Party (PCRM) for purposes similar to that for which the legendary Trojan horse was used – to conquer Troy. It is true that these suspicions are fading away as the leader of the group Igor Dodon provides rather truthful explanations for their defection from the Communist parliamentary group and because the propaganda machine of the PCRM intensifies its attacks on the three, naming them ‘traitors’, ‘people’s enemies’, ‘weak and corrupt persons’. These suspicions may offend the members of the Dodon group, who may say: “we want to save the nation, but both of the sides and even the press call us traitors”. But these are the risks taken by the members of the group when making such a move. Anyway, the ‘Trojan horse’ scenario cannot be excluded also because the PCRM is a champion in employing well-thought-out political technologies for achieving its goals. The other Moldovan political players have yet a lot to learn from the Communists in this respect. Furthermore, the Trojan horse may be used not (only) by the PCRM... What dangers does such a scenario pose? If a head of state from outside the ruling alliance is elected, he/she practically cannot be dismissed, but the President can discharge ministers in particular and the Government in general, and the Prime Minister especially, who were named by the ruling alliance. A head of state under the intransigent influence of the PCRM or its leader may make the conflict between the branches of power the worst possible so that the misunderstandings that existed between ex-Presidents Snegur and Luchinski and the Government and Parliament would seem childish. There is a danger that the disagreements will extend not only at internal level, but also at foreign level as the head of state has enough constitutional prerogatives to orient or reorient the country’s foreign policy. Zinaida Greceanyi already played a part in such a ‘play’. In 2008, former President Vladimir Voronin dismissed the most famous and long-serving Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev overnight, without making the reason public. Vasile Tarlev was replaced then by Zinaida Greceanyi. We should also not forget that the PCRM launched its stratagem for taking over the power without taking part in the government, by another move that was made practically simultaneously with the defection of the three MPs from its parliamentary group. Communist lawmaker Artur Reshetnikov, who had headed the Security and Information Service, was appointed Deputy Speaker though earlier the PCRM disputed the legality of the present government, saying it is unconstitutional, anti-popular and usurps the power. The PCRM avoided taking steps that would have associated it with the ruling alliance, including at the level of Parliament administration. Thus, if we admit that such a scenario exists, the goal of overcoming the political crisis and ensuring stability, announced by the Dodon group, by electing Zinaida Greceanyi as head of state, becomes an antipode. If this scenario exists, conquering Troy means destroying it as Troy is not only the AEI, but the entire Moldova. The ruling alliance is shaken from inside and thus no major investments and scenarios are needed from outside... [The second reason against] Zinaida Greceanyi cannot be voted in as head of state for political-moral reason as well because this post belongs to someone else by right. The government coalition rules in accordance with an agreement, by which the post of President was given to the leader of the Democratic Party (PDM) Marian Lupu. And the agreement must be respected. In politics in general and in the Moldovan politics in particular, the partners must keep their word. The durability of a political alliance depends on how the reached agreements are respected and on the predictability of the behavior of the political partners in any conditions. The non-observance of the agreements can endanger the coalition and, principally, the country’s orientation course. Actually, why not Lupu? Only one reason has been made public until now. Vladimir Voronin said the PCRM will not vote for Lupu because he ‘betrayed’ the party when he left it in 2009. Now this argument is not relevant as the situation changed and the election of Lupu does not depend on the PCRM now. This option is now promoted by the Dodon-Greceanyi-Abramchuk group, but they do not explain why they do not want to vote for Lupu. How rigid are they in this respect? The PCRM and Voronin also called them ‘traitors’, but traitors who betrayed more seriously than Lupu and in a moment that was more important for the PCRM. Thus, the only viable conclusion now is that the Dodon group does not want Lupu because ... Voronin does not want him. We should now return to the first reason against Greceanyi.. A joke about the military regulations says: Rule No 1. The commander is always right; Rule No. 2. If the commander is wrong, refer to rule No.1. [Half a reason against] Those who oppose the election of Zinaida Greceanyi invoke mainly her behavior during the April 2009 events, when, as a Prime Minister, she practically threatened the protesters that the police (or the army) will shoot at them if the violence does not stop. Evidently, such statements in such situations reveal the nature of a person, who in this case is a woman and a mother. That’s why she is probably called “Zinca – machine gun shooter” – by the heroine of a Soviet film about Chapaev. It is known that Moldova’s international partners expressed then their astonishment at those statements and the then Communist authorities were informed about their opinion. Below are described the reasons for which Zinaida Grecenyi may be elected head of state. [The other half a reason for] Greceanyi’s opponents include mainly the participants or supporters of the April 2009 events. A lot of people believed then and later than the vandalizing of the Parliament Building and the Presidential Office was organized by the Communist power with the aim of discrediting and annihilating the then political opposition and of accusing Romania ({see analysis “Acts of vandalism: equation will unknowns on both sides” that was published on April 15, 2009}). During two years and a half, the Ministry of the Interior completed the investigation into only one case related to those events, of Baghirov, and this fact speaks in favor of this thesis. If things stand like this, Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanyi either went against Vladimir Voronin, Mark Tkachuk and other Communists suspected of organizing those events, or she wasn’t aware of what was going on and did not form part of the Communist machinery. [The first reason for] Zinaida Greceanyi may be elected if she is the only compromise candidate for the presidency who can poll at least 61 votes and if a number of things about the 2.5 reasons against are clarified. The non-election of the head of state automatically leads to early legislative elections and the consequences will be unpredictable or so predictable that those causing them should be the enemy of oneself or the enemy of this country. The situation will be more unstable and for a longer period of time. Large groups of people will become poorer, no internal and foreign investments will be made and the relations with the foreign donors will be deteriorated. In such an environment, different kinds of social and political microbes develop, criminality goes up and the people decay morally. The disappearance of the present government coalition in the eventuality of early elections will not be considered a great loss by Moldovan society because it had a noxious, even irrational political behavior. Probably this is the reason why Igor Dodon said the AEI should disappear as a bad dream. But if the AEI, which reached a certain consensus as regards the country’s foreign policy, disappears, the course to European integration may be changed. [The second reason for] It seems that Moldova’s international partners, both from the East and the West, are in favor of electing Zinaida Grecenyi as head of state. The European Union for example supports the one step back tactic in the hope that more steps forward will be taken in the future as it does not want to lose everything it invested in this ‘success story’ of the Eastern Partnership, as Moldova is called. Prime Minister Vlad Filat, who recently visited Brussels, may have returned with additional arguments in this sense. Only in this case can the information that the Premier went again to the EU’s capital last wakened after visiting it earlier the same week seem credible. [Valeriu Vasilica, Info-Prim Neo]