Opposition’s common victory could be scattered by its incoherence – political analyst

The results of the local elections held on June 3 marks the start of a totally different situation, with important consequences for Moldova, political analyst Igor Botan says. According to him, the fact that the rating of the Party of Communists (PCRM) has went down to 1/3 of the voters creates a news situation for the party. During the absolute domination on the political landscape, PCRM managed to make enemies, and in the recent elections, the persecution of the opposition candidates, including the “constructive” ones, has rejected all potential partners. In light of this situation, PCRM will have to promote a new behaviour in order inhibit the negative trends which are associated with it. The alternative to the harsh attitude towards political enemies and confrontation between the central and local authorities, controlled by the opposition, would be the implementation of the modernisation announced long ago by the PCRM and co-participation in building a socialist or social-democrat pole of influence. The first option could have harmful consequences for Moldova, the second one is apparently too good to be achievable, the analyst says. According to the cited source, the possible attempts of PCRM to win again the support of voters will be difficult. The analysis of the data on the participation rate and distribution of votes show significant changes in the voter behaviour, which should not be explained only by the absenteeism, but also by the public policies promoted by the ruling party. The voters have the right to ask – why a “liberal revolution” has to be carried out by a communist party and not by a liberal one. Botan considers that the “aggregate” victory of the opposition could be somehow scattered by the incoherent actions. The future coalitions of the opposition parties with a view to create majorities and elect the leadership in the majority of raions and in the municipality of Chisinau could be carried out in several ways. On the other hand, maintaining the equilibrium in the relations of the raion administrations controlled by the opposition with the central power would contribute to maintaining the favourable trends, seen in the recent elections, until the Parliamentary elections which will take place in 2009. Also, the expert considers that the possible attempts of the opposition to weaken at raion level the ground controlled by the ruling party, could generate a response from it. Occurrence of radical relations between the power and the opposition on the background of the harsh critics brought to the government for the state of the media, election process etc, could justify the refuse of the EU to provide a higher status to the relations with Moldova. As a consequence, PCRM could resume its open polices in favour of the CIS, fact which has become more visible lately. According to Botan, the opposition should undertake actions for overcoming this scattering situation, but the Moldovan cultural political traditions give little chances for optimism in this respect, as the collaboration capacity between the opposition leaders “who created the conditions” for the manifestation of the new trends is still a problem. It is very probable that until the parliamentary elections the political instability will grow. This fact is not only risky for the political class, but also for the voters, who can elect only “lost illusions”, political analyst Igor Botan considers.