Only one survey – instrument of research or manipulation? Info-Prim Neo analysis

One weighty sociological survey is traditionally launched in Moldova before elections, either parliamentary or local – the Public Opinion Barometer (POB). In France for instance, about 300 such polls were carried out during the last election campaign and many sociological companies competed arduously to show which of them is more precise. In Moldova, it is the wrong way up. Therefore the people feel distrust when only one survey appears before the elections and then it turns out that its data do not fully coincide with the voters’ choice. It is natural that many questions appear in this connection, including whether these data had been falsified for one’s own electoral purpose by those that hold the power. [The POB’s verdict – four parties have chances] The Public Policy Institute (IPP) presented the Public Opinion Barometer on March 24, less than two weeks before the April 5 elections. The votes that the election runners would poll if legislative elections were held next Sunday were the most expected figures. The parties treated the results of the poll with reserve as the ruling party preserves the leading position in them. On the other hand, the POB authors say that the poll should not be regarded as an electoral forecast as voters’ choices are permanently changing. According to the POB, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, the Communist Party (PCRM) would gain 36.2% of the vote. The Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM) would poll 8.3% of the vote, the Liberal Party (PL) – 8.2% and the Moldova Noastra Alliance (AMN) – 5.4%. (AMN was included in the list of parties that can enter the Parliament given the margin of sampling error of plus-minus 2.8%). The other parties would not pass the election threshold of 6%: the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – 2.6%, the Centrist Union of Moldova (UCM) – 2.5%, the Christian Democratic People’s Party (PPCD) – 1.4%, the Democratic Party (PD) – 0.7%. [AMN: BOP is a clownery rerun at every elections] Serafim Urecheanu, the president of the Moldova Noastra Alliance, described the POB as a political clownery rerun at every elections, while the institution that commissioned the poll – an organization with damaged reputation - “IPP si Barbarosie” (Arcadie Barbarosie, the executive director of the IPP – e.n.) must be ignored because the poll conducted by them is nothing but disrespect for the people. According to Urecheanu, the data represent the wishes of President Vladimir Voronin and the ideologist of the PCRM Mark Tkachuk. “They understand that we are the major force they should struggle with and thus try to discredit us,” the AMN leader said. Urecheanu also said that the AMN regularly carries out internal surveys that show a different situation than the one presented by the IPP. The AMN’s position is much stronger than presented in the IPP’s survey. Urecheanu said that he would not believe the exist polls conducted by the IPP either because earlier they published the results before the polling places were closed and this is against the law. According to him, this way the people were misled as the results covered only the first half of the day when most of the votes go to the Communists. He also said that if need be he, together with the democratic parties, will ask the voters not to answer the questions of the exit polls. On the other hand, when presenting the POB Ion Jigau, the director of the CBS-AXA Centre of Sociological Investigations and Marketing that carried out the survey, said that the poll is not an electoral forecast because it is not known how the undecided voters would vote. “It can be used as basis or source of information for experts’ assessments,” Jigau said. Arcadie Barbarosie explained that the poll was carried out at the start of the election campaign (February 28 – March 14). As the election campaign became livelier and election debates are held on radio and television, the analyst considers that the number of undecided voters has decreased. “Voters’ preferences oscillate depending on the events taking place,” Barbarosie said. “The situation is not yet stable. There are factors that cannot be measured. For example, no one can say what the impact of the April 1 pension rise will be as there are about 630,000 pensioner-voters in Moldova that vote mainly for the PCRM,” said Igor Botan, the executive director of the Association for Participative Democracy “Adept”. According to him, the number of undecided voters is larger than before the 2005 elections - 20% then compared with 27% now. The political analyst Igor Botan explains the AMN’s lower rating by what he calls “sectoral change” – the electorate from the same electoral sector moves from one party to another. So, the PPCD fuels the rating of the PL, the PD – of the PLDM, while the AMN – of the two Liberal parties – the PL and PLDM. According to Botan, at the 2005 legislative elections, the POB predicted exactly the results of two established parties. The poll gave a rating of 46.7% for the PCRM, which won 46% of the freely expressed votes, while the rating for the PPCD was 9.2% and it polled 9% of the vote in elections. At the same time, the Moldova Noastra Block (BMD) in the poll had 16%, but won 28% in elections. The political analysts explained that the BMD was a new ascending party that attracted a lot of undecided voters. Botan says that two such parties run in the 2009 elections – the PL and PLDM, whose ratings rise from poll to poll. On the other hand, another Liberal party – the AMN – is descending. The analyst cannot yet say how the undecided voters will behave towards this party. “The intrigue is that we do not know what will happen to the third Liberal party,” the executive director of “Adept” said. [The PLDM, PL, UCM: BOP favors the PCRM] The PLDM president Vlad Filat has told Info-Prim Neo that the party makes periodical assessments and the number of those that are ready to vote for the PLDM is much higher. “The BOP data are designed to demoralize the society. The Communists, according to our information, have a much lower popular approval rating,” Vlad Filat said. The PLDM leader also said that it is regrettable that they try to manipulate the people by so-called opinion polls besides using administrative resources the media, etc. in this campaign.” Yet, Vlad Filat agrees that at most four parties will enter the future Parliament: the PCRM and the three parties about which it is said they should have common actions and a common message, even since August 2008 (the PL, PLDM and AMN). The PL vice president Corina Fusu considers that the poll favors the PCRM, while the expressed rating of the PL (8.3%) is lower than in reality. Corina Fusu considers that the PL would be supported by at least 20% of the population. She said that the PL ranks second not third in the voter preferences list. “The PL is the second most trusted party, obtaining 21% of respondents’ votes. Therefore, we consider that the PL takes the same position in the preferences list,” Fusu told Info-Prim Neo. Andrei Andres, spokesman for the UCM, told us that the UCM president, the former Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev does not even want to comment on this survey. The party does not trust the POB because all the figures are falsified. “All the opinion polls in Moldova are bought and commissioned by Mark Tkachuk,” Andres said. At the same time, Igor Botan said that those that support the PCRM should not rejoice. According to him, the PCRM had a higher rating in the POB before the 2005 elections, with downward trends. This time, the rating is by 10% lower, but the trends are upward. This is mainly due to the fact that the PCRM is widely covered by the media. “It is not yet known if the PCRM manages to recover the 200,000 votes lost in the 2007 local elections. 200,000 persons, mostly old people, died in Moldova meanwhile. They represented the electoral segment of the PCRM. Other pensioners replaced them, but it is not clear if they think the same way,” Botan said. “Despite the fact that the population is dissatisfied with the situation in the country, the ruling party continues to be the most trusted party because the people consider that the other parties are even worse,” he said. [The MAE and PSD: disinformation!] The European Action Movement (MAE), which has 0.2% in the POB, said that the IPP’s survey represents the greatest piece of disinformation in the election campaign. The MAE said it would sue the IPP the next day after the election results are announced. “We will demand that they provide the database used so as we could make a parallel verification. If it turns out that the respondents do not exist or they gave different answers, we will demand damages for harming the image of the MAE,” the MAE says in a communiqué. “The MAE disapproves of the use of opinion polls as instruments for manipulating the people before the elections. This way, they try to discredit some of the parties and support others,” the communiqué reads. The MAE said that it counted on 7 to 10% of the vote. “In the opinion poll published at the end of last year, the MAE had about 3%, but in the current poll its chances are practically nil at a time when it carries out an active campaign that is noticed by everybody. The PSD also considers that the data are incorrect. “I did not trust and do not trust the IPP’s polls. In 2003, they forecast that the Communists would poll by 30-40% more than they won in realty. The same is happening now: they consciously promise more percents to some of the parties and reduce the percentage for other parties with a single aim,” the PSD president Dumitru Braghis said. [The PDM: the voters are afraid to tell who they will vote for] The PDM vice president Oazu Nantoi, who is also program director at the IPP, said that the PDM has a very low rating (0.7%) because the people are afraid to say who they will vote for. “The election campaign conducted in Moldova shows that the PCRM uses all the levers to manipulate and intimidate the Moldovan people. I know cases when the people did not come to the meetings held by the PDM because they were afraid,” Nantoi told the reporters. Therefore, the PDM supposes that a large part of the voters, including those that want to vote for the PDM, avoid giving open answers to the questions about their voting preferences. There were cases when the PDM had poorer results in polls than in elections. “We cannot ignore the fact that the presented Public Opinion Barometer reveals alarming prospects for Moldova. Two political groups with opposing and absolutely incompatible positions could enter the Parliament and the legislature could become the ground of a war of self-destruction,” Nantoi warns. Viorel Cibotaru, program director at the IPP, said that it is hard to say now how many parties would enter the Parliament given the margin of sampling error. He considers that over 20% of the voters will make up their minds on the last days. [Instead of afterword] We ask ourselves: if there are such divergences with unfavorable electoral impact, why do they continue conducting only one survey and why the competition in the field is not developed? On the contrary, the Academy of Sciences of Moldova, which has lately received a lot of money from the state, abandoned its own sociological institute. We must say that four years ago, the researchers of this institute presented a study that reflected exactly the voters’ preferences, but it left in the shade. One of the changes that must come with the new government is the abandonment of manipulations, including by developing competition and professional responsibility in sociology.